Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – August 27, 2015

We’re about to get hit with more rain than waves.

As stated before Erika is a larger and more resilient storm than Danny. I don’t recommend thinking Erika will just be another Danny. There will be some weather tomorrow. I think the southern coasts and the east side of the island will see the worst of it tomorrow and then we’ll get the leftovers on Saturday. Tropical Storm Erika has been forecast to move a little higher north but she seems pretty stubborn and is a little lower latitude than most predicted. The front of the storm has absolutely no rain and weak winds. The back side of the storm is where the action is. Once that side of the storm makes its way to island we’ll see a lot of flooding so be careful. Most of the swell in the ocean right now is east swell and that probably won’t change. The storm was also forecast to be moving along quicker than it is currently moving. This means the whole process of Erika passing over us might be dragged out and for our side of the island the worst weather will be seen after she passes.

Long term outlook:

Tropical Storm Erika is probably going to degenerate into an open wave while passing over Dominican and Hispanola, but she might be enough intact to get going again near the Bahamas. Just north of the Bahamas is our sweet spot for NW tropical swell, but the storm needs a solid wind field in all quadrants. The shear is forecast to be low so if she can get high enough and power up fast enough we could see some NW swell into next week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.