Cold Front Mania – Let the NW swell continue!
This week will be feature a little more wind than the past couple of weeks, but we should have plenty of NW and N swell for the coming work week. Next weekend is looking like the NNE to NE leftovers of the current weather systems, but with the amount of activity I’m seeing on sat images I wouldn’t be surprised to see another major swell event form. Tomorrow should be chest to head high and clean at the north facing beaches and hopefully some bigger sets. Tuesday may see a slight bump up to head high with some overhead sets with clean conditions in the morning and onshore everywhere winds by the afternoon. Wednesday should be head high to a couple feet overhead with light winds. Waist to chest high with light winds should be the theme for the remainder of the forecast period with a few bigger pulses at the right time and tide. So far this month has provided a lot of waves. I like the lower latitude fronts and NW swell. It hits Rincon really well and the NW angle is a big part of why this past week was so much better than most people expected.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.