A week of wind and very small wind waves ahead.
This week and weekend is going to get windy! We should have a lot of wind and terrible waves. Surf lesson spots will be great for surf lessons, but everyone else will be angry and frustrated. This is understandable, the ocean can’t be perfect for an entire month straight and not take a break eventually. For now, high pressure will take the center stage over the Atlantic and the surf will go on vacation for at least 7 days. The next swell on the radar might arrive by early next week. I’ll update closer to the weekend and let you know if next week will actually have waves or not. After our week of flatness we’re bound to see things pick up. Now is a good time to get your dings fixed, get caught up on work, fix things around the house, and do everything you put off the entire month of February.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.