Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 5, 2017

Big swell forecast to hit Rincon for next week.

A considerably large weather system is growing as we speak and amplifying. Once it pulls off into the Atlantic completely we should have a solid day or two of very large NW swell at the beginning of next week. This will most likely create double overhead and bigger conditions. Tres Palmas should get its first 2017 swell. I will be watching this system closely.

Weekend surfing conditions while we wait for the big stuff:

A long period NE swell is forecast to show up Friday night. Long period NE swell is fun but it always tends to have it’s draw-backs as well. NE swells tend to show up later than forecast and can often have long waits in between sets. If the angle has too much east in it or not enough size, Rincon only has one or two spots that can pick it up which means crowds and frustration build. If the size is decent and there’s plenty of North angle, just about every spot in Rincon should be working which can help alleviate the crowds and make the long wait in between sets more bearable. If you want to take the guessing game out of the picture, just go up to Aguadilla or Isabela where NE angle is a more direct hit.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.