Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 7, 2017

Massive swell event forecast for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Ok… yeah, this weekend’s long period swell ended up being a dud. In my defence I did warn that long period NE swell tends to come in late and can miss Rincon if the size or angle isn’t sufficient for Rincon. I still think the conditions tomorrow should be surfable here in Rincon, but more than likely the spots picking up the swell will be pretty heavily crowded and the wait in between sets will be a bit long. Don’t stress it though. This coming week is going to have an abundance of surf. Super tucked spots will be the call for most people and should be working great. The wind will be fairly strong so the tucked away spots will also be the call to find glassy conditions. Big wave spots should be working just fine for all the thrill seekers, but a little more length in your board could prove helpful. The winds are going to be pushing very hard offshore making it a little harder to get down the face on some of the days. The big stuff should show up by Tuesday and last through Friday. We’re talking 4-5 days of double overhead and bigger surf (possibly more). There is going to be a lot of wind with this swell event so mornings will probably be the best time to catch it – whether you’re going for the big stuff or the tucked away and smaller spots.

SAFETY FIRST!

If you’re out of your league don’t figure that out in the water. Seriously, know your limits before paddling out. The wind and currents will add an extra element of danger. When considering a paddle out, you can’t just make a decision based on the size of the waves alone. Watch how it’s breaking, where it’s breaking, and how fast the water is moving. I think the current is going to be a big issue with this swell, especially if the winds go side-shore at times. Be careful and have fun.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.