Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 28, 2016

Weather patterns are on constant repeat – no surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

I haven’t updated the forecast in a long while. It’s because it was exactly the same every single day. The same weak low’s would pull of the states, the same endless tropical waves would pull off Africa, and the same surf forecast would watch them all dissipate and disintegrate into nothing the closer they got to Puerto Rico. It seemed like whenever anything would ever get close to our swell window it would disappear. We would get tiny background swells that were perfect for pushing little kids and first timers for surf lessons, but not much for anyone else. Will it continue to do this? Yes. However, statistically speaking we should see some tropical systems start to form in September and as early as late August. We have had no shortage of tropical waves. In that sense we’ve had a very active season so far with plenty of tropical possibilities, but none of them have materialized into anything for surfing here in Rincon. The southeast corner of Puerto Rico has seemed to be having a great summer with several days around chest high over there. The north side of the island has had plenty of waist high weak windswell so far. Rincon has just remained hot and tiny. I’ll have a separate post up soon with how I’ve managed to keep my sanity over the past couple of months.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.