Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 12, 2015

Possible big swell a week out; not much until then.

This high pressure blocking our swell window has been intense. Almost the entire first half of March has been wind fest. It looks like that will continue to be the case. My guess is that the entire month of March continues a lot of wind, but at least we might get more swell to punch through. I’ve been watching the long range model runs for a change all month and the 18th and 19th have been consistently seeing a nice storm right in our swell window. The runs consistently put the low right where we needs it to be to get some N to NNW swell going.

What about Sunday?

Sunday should be fun with some chest to head high surf and occasionally bigger sets with waist to chest high leftovers on Monday morning. Some of the automated surf forecast sites threw up some crazy false positives on a major swell event for Sunday – they were horribly mistaken and now correcting toward a more realistic outcome. I think I’m right on this one because I’m not seeing anything on the buoys to suggest otherwise.

So Two days next week and one day this weekend? That’s it for the rest of March?

Not necessarily. Looks like after the 17th we see a change in the flow off the states with more storms trying to dip down and out. Some are currently forecast to push through and others are not. I think after a non-stop February, we were due for a bit of slow down. That came in the first couple of weeks in March. I think the second half of March is going to rage.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.