Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 3, 2017

heavy winds forecast for puerto rico.

Major wind and swell event on the way.

Here’s the deal. We’re supposed to get a major swell event early next week that could last the majority of the week. The downside is that it will be accompanied by very strong winds and the swell itself will be fairly short period. The swell height seems large enough that a lot of tucked away spots should still be working fairly well. But there will definitely be a limited number of spots available. On setups like this the crowds tend to bunch up at most of the spots with “normal” sized waves that are protected from the wind. Tres Palmas could be pretty decent in the mornings for the thrill seekers and chargers. For the most part though a lot of popular spots will be unsurfable. Everyone please try to be safe with this swell. Don’t underestimate the conditions or overestimate your skill level. The currents are going to be very strong and a lot of paddling is going to be involved wherever you end up surfing.

How big will the surf get in Rincon?

Most likely we will see double overhead conditions and only a few spots will be protected enough from the heavy winds. The current will be really strong and the big wave spots might see waves bigger than double overhead. I stress safety again. If your leash were to break as a five wave set of double overhead bombs breaks on top of your head, would you have what it takes to hold your breathe, stay calm, swim strategically, avoid the bottom, and make it safely back to shore? Are you prepared for a situation like that? It’s something to think about if we end up getting big conditions and you’re on the shore considering a paddle out. I’m anticipating a lot of waves per set as is common with shorter period swell.

Any surf in Rincon for the weekend? What about the Corona contest at Domes?

Short answer – no we’ll stay flat. Saturday is looking like it will be ankle to knee high and mushy. Sunday will probably be the same with a possible bump up to knee to waist high by the evening. The wind will also be howling hard from the ENE to NE so the surface conditions should be fairly choppy in the afternoons. The pro’s are going to have to work really hard to make it happen. Good thing they’re the best surfers on the island (or adjacent areas) because I definitely wouldn’t be able to do anything in those conditions. Each year they always manage to pull off crazy manuevers despite the micro conditions so there will still be some action to be seen. The contest normally has fun games and activities as well and is generally a fun beach party. Please remember to use the garbage cans and recycle bins.

Wishful thinking scenario for this weekend.

The large weather system responsible for the coming big swell next week might make enough commotion as it pulls off the eastern coast of the US to send a small NW background pulse at Rincon giving us at least a waist high wave on Saturday and Sunday. It’s not out of the question so everyone just hope for the best.

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.