Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 5, 2017

Major swell event confirmed for Puerto Rico.

Major swell event confirmed for Puerto Rico.

Wow! Look at that image above. It’s like the entire North Atlantic is being pushed right at us. We should have big conditions starting tomorrow with huge conditions on Tuesday. The buoys are solid so this swell event is pretty much confirmed. I was hoping that the morning wouldn’t be too massive tomorrow, but from the timing I’m seeing on the outside buoys I think we’re going to wake up to some double overhead sets and less than ideal conditions. The initial arrival of such a swell tends to bring a lot of wind, water, and current with it making for super challenging surf. Expect double overhead and bigger on Tuesday. However, once the angle changes we should see a considerable drop in wave height on Wednesday and Thursday. The hard offshore winds will cause this swell to fade out by the weekend, but the entire week should have plenty of swell. Tucked away nooks and crannies will be the call on the first couple of days with the exception of the wind protected big wave spots. I’ll do my best to get good coverage of this swell.

BE SAFE!!!

This swell is going to bring a lot of drifty conditions with it. Currents and wind will be strong and the wave heights will be large. Don’t underestimate the danger out there or overestimate our abilities. Please keep children out of high current areas along the shorelines. There will be plenty of memorable rides for sure on this swell. Let’s make sure they’re good memories.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.