Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 12, 2015

I know I sound like a broken record, but go north if you want to surf.

Rincon is going to stay small to flat for the foreseeable future. Most pulses that show up on the beach will be perfect for surf lessons or longboard, but nothing extreme is on the radar. Meanwhile, every morning the north coast of the island has been super fun! I know it doesn’t work with everyone’s schedule to drive up there every day, but it’s good to have it as an option if your stoke is low and you really need to surf. In another month, there won’t be anything up there either so enjoy the setup while it lasts.

Tropics? Anything there?

The official forecasts from the big dogs are for a super quiet 2015 Hurricane Season. Personally, I think we’ll see a more active season than last year, but that’s not saying much. Our main swell window is already on lockdown, so tropical swell will be hard to make. The flows we’re seeing now and that may continue through the summer aren’t conducive to wave making storms for Puerto Rico. But once again, personally I have a hunch that we’ll do better than last year.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.