Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 18, 2017

High pressure takes center stage – surf in Rincon next week?

This week’s long period swell has been super fun. I’d like to tell you that it will be around indefinitely, but unfortunately it will fade out today and tomorrow. Isabela and Aguadilla have been really good with these last two long period NE swells (NE swell favors that area more than Rincon in general). And the good news is that up there should continue to be fun over the weekend. Rincon will probably go small to flat with perfect surf lessons waves.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the next opportunity for surf here in Rincon. I still see plenty of weather over the states that suggests that something will follow the pattern we’ve seen so far with one adjustment – a longer lag. It might be a week or so, but i definitely see another long period swell on the horizon from the NE. Hopefully it will be as good as this past one. Take the time on the smaller or flat days to get work done or play with your kids.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.