Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 18, 2015

Rincon is about to go off – Get ready to surf!

We have some coldfronts trapped between two high pressure systems. This will turbo charge the fetch from the north over the next couple of days and create a fair amount of swell. Look for overhead conditions on Wednesday and Thursday, with chest to head high surf on Friday. Here’s where it gets crazy, next weekend is looking double overhead and bigger on the latest model runs. If it happens, it will be the first big swell of the season.

The quality of the surf could be really good!

The wind forecast for all of the days of surf is mainly light and variable winds with a tendency toward ESE flow for next week. Solid swell with dead winds means the mornings should be super glassy with clean conditions lasting well into the afternoon until the onshore seabreeze picks up everywhere. There should also be almost endless options for spots since there will be adequate swell and favorable winds for just about every surfing beach in Puerto Rico. Find an uncrowded break and surf yourself into oblivion.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.