Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 27, 2015

Plenty of weather over the water to keep the surf coming!

The weather is finally cooling off at night and the mornings have been refreshingly cool. We’ve been getting waves fairly consistently and happiness has been restored to acceptable levels for just about everyone over here. I certainly hope this pattern keeps up. We’ve had a great October so far surf-wise. Tomorrow is looking like the smallest day of the week with some knee to waist high leftovers, but you still might see some chest high sets roll in. Another high latitude storm will have a ton of high pressure build-in behind it which should give us another round of swell. Look for the surf to be on the rise starting from Thursday and last through Saturday. The northerly fetch looks decent on the weather models and we should see a slightly longer period (by a second or two) than this past swell event. This means we’ll hopefully have a just a little less wobble in the waves. The wind is supposed to be more dominant from the east so the west facing side of Rincon should be well groomed. Here’s the short version:

Wednesday: Knee to waist high leftovers glassy in the morning.
Thursday: Waist to chest and glassy in the morning building to head high plus by the end of the day.
Friday: Head high and glassy in the morning and at all west facing spots with wind protection later in the day.
Saturday: Chest high and conditions similar to Friday.
Sunday: Waist high glassy leftovers.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.