Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 5, 2014

Get Ready to Surf!

I’m glad my forecast from five days ago played out exactly as I hoped (for the most part). Today had some awesome waves! Granted the angle of this swell is still fairly NE (i was hoping for more North), but it’s at least big enough to get many spots working. We should have some fun surf in the waist to chest high range for most of the early to mid-week before fading to complete flatness by next weekend. Due to the NE angle. The North Coast of Puerto Rico will have a lot more size and power than Rincon. Rincon will be Longboarder’s delight for the next three days. On the right tide, some of the shortboard spots should be fun too. I’m just stoked to be able to surf again. I’m also happy the nights are cooling down. The 100 degree temps during the day are still a bummer, but at least it’s cooling down at night.

Rincon: Monday should have some chest to head high surf early and then drop off a bit by sundown. Tuesday will probably have plenty of waist to chest high surf. Wednesday will be small and fade out to flat until the next swell making weather system.

Aguadilla/Isabela: You guys should remain head high plus through tomorrow with chest high sets persistent through most of the week. A possible East swell might show up from a tropical blob as this current swell fades out keeping the surf above chest high up there through next weekend.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.