Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – October 3, 2016

Hurricane Matthew, wow what a storm! More Surf?

This hurricane is for real! It’s not particularly common to have a storm maintain this much strength for such a long period of time. This storm is a beast. He’s forecast to remain a major hurricane for most of the week. This is good for surf. This is bad for Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Though he is currently forecast to thread the needle up the channel in between Jamaica and Haiti, there’s no avoiding the extreme weather that comes with such a storm. Surf-wise, his trek heading up north will continue to push WSW swell up the Mona Passage at us and some very special spots on the south side of Puerto Rico should be firing. Once he passes cuba, some W to WNW swell should work its way to PR. Once he’s in Bahamas we should see some WNW to NW swell start to fill in. Once he’s off the coast of the Carolinas, we should see another push of NW swell. So far we’re looking to get a lot of surf from this storm.

Where did this little guy come from? 98L added to the mix for possible surf.

What this little weather system will actually do is extremely uncertain. However, with such calm winds to the north of us, this little guy could throw some ENE swell into the mix. He could also help give a double whammy of surf if he actually gets his act together a bit more and crosses the 65W boundary. There is a lot of heat in the ocean right now and not a lot of shear so anything is possible. So far, October is off to a great start for surfing Puerto Rico.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.