Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 10, 2015

Notice there isn’t much going on west of Henri? No real surf.

Tropical Storm Henri has almost no windfield on his west side which means we don’t have a north fetch or even a NE fetch. That means no real surf. We might see some background swell, but there isn’t even any real gradient or any weather whatsoever on his west side that could point a decent swell at us. It’s a grim forecast, but I think after the next day or so of smaller knee high leftovers we’ll be flat for a while.

What about the remnants of Grace?

Grace, much like Fred, was doomed from her beginning. PR has a force field of shear around it which is a result of the extreme heat from a record El Niño in the Pacific. Grace’s remaining fragments will pass our island this weekend and will do almost nothing. We might have a slight bump up on the north side of the island for surf, but Rincon will stay knee high at best. On the off chance we actually get more than that – surf it! Even it’s waist high – surf it! Have fun in the ocean. It’s too hot, and we’re going to be flat for a bit again. Surf whatever you can.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.