Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 15, 2014

This is What a Swell Generating Wind Field Looks Like!

Whenever you’ve been skunked from a Tropical weather system even though it’s in your swell window, it’s probably because of a weak wind field. For example, Hurricane Bertha had barely any wind on her entire left side which meant no swell for us. Hurricane Edouward has the goods. With a symmetrical wind field like you see in the picture above and a large area of Hurricane force winds, he will shoot swell in all directions. On top of that his pressure is nice and low (currently at 963mb as I type this). Granted, storm path also has a lot to do with where the bulk of the swell will go too. The Eastern US is going to get perfect waves from this storm from the momentum of his movement so far. Nonetheless, due to that solid wind field, swell will make it to Puerto Rico.

What Kind of Surf to Expect:

Rincon: Hurricane Edouward is not predicted to pass 60 degrees West so NW swell is out of the picture. His movement will throw most of his swell everywhere but Rincon. The swell is mainly from the ENE to NE angle, but the period is forecast to be in the 12-14 second range. Rincon can expect to have some glassy knee to waist high surf Tomorrow, waist to chest waves with some head high sets mid-week with fading conditions through Friday.

Aguadilla/Isabela: You will be on fire! As early as Tuesday expect head high plus surf with glassy conditions every morning. The winds may stay light most of the day and glass off again at night. By the end of Tomorrow evening some spots might see some double overhead sets. The swell will remain stick around during the week. Smaller leftovers will probably linger through the weekend.

Arecibo, San Juan, and Fajardo: Pretty much the same forecast as Aguadilla/Isabela area except you will see the swell sooner. You will also get the brunt of the swell so a lot of places will be working!

Check the automated model forecast below using my custom viewer. It updates itself every model run to keep you up-to-date on the predicted swell. NOTE: NOAA’s server that hosts the images appears to be messed up at the moment. When the images are back online they will appear again automatically.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.