Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 17, 2014

Rincon kind of got skunked on the Hurricane Edouward Swell

It looked like the swell would be strong enough to push into Rincon, but the path of the storm just didn’t cooperate enough to give Rincon the reach-around. The swell wrapped around as best it could but that still just left us with surf lesson waves in Rincon. The North side of the island got pretty decent and there was quite a few fun sessions to be had, but the crowds were super heavy. The swell in reality didn’t have nearly as much of a NE angle as all the models were predicting. In the ocean it was mainly East swell. Unfortunately, the forecast is looking grim again.

Rincon: We stay small to flat for the foreseeable future. Some background pulses might show up over the weekend off and on with the tides, but don’t expect much.

Isabela/Aguadilla: Smaller leftovers starting tomorrow with a big drop in size by Friday. Some waist to chest high wind chop should be on hand over the next week or so though.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.