Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 18, 2014

Weak Troughs and Weak Swell – Better than nothing?

This weekend and early next week will feature small to flat conditions with random pulses from the weak fronts that have pulled off the Eastern United States combine with whatever happens in the far North Atlantic. Not too much to look forward to, but much better than having nothing to look forward to.

Rincon: Most of the background pulses will fill in early next week. We will only have leftovers Tomorrow and the weekend is looking flat.

Isabela: You should remain around waist to chest high through the weekend into next week. Even up there though you will fluctuate with parts of the day remaining knee high or so.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.