Weekend Update: Smaller surf, but plenty of it!
The wind will blow pretty hard between now and Friday, but by the weekend we should see dead winds here in Rincon and possibly some south winds on Sunday and Monday. The high pressure is taking center stage as the wave generating system in the Atlantic which means that we’ll see a bit of a shorter period that originally anticipated. Also, a little more NE angle will be on the swell which means the size and strength of the waves to come goes down a notch. We should still see some fun waist to chest high surf though on most days into next week.
Here’s how I see the surf forecast playing out:
Friday: Waist to Chest High windy leftovers.
Saturday: Chest to Head High and glassy everywhere.
Sunday: Chest to Head High and glassy everywhere with the north facing beaches remaining glassy all day.
Monday: Waist to Chest High with south winds again.
Tuesday: Knee to Waist High with pretty much dead winds perfect for surf lessons.
Wednesday: Waist high building to chest and head high by the evening with light wind.
Thursday: Waist to Chest High with light east wind.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.