Another cold-front swell for surfing Puerto Rico.
The power of the storm is pretty impressive but we’ll have an unfavorable track of the main power zone and wind fetch. Most of the swell that looks to make it’s way down to PR will be from the back side after the fact so it could take until early next week before we see the main pulse arrive. The swell will have a bit of NE tilt on it as well which will trim some of the exposure off for Rincon. The north side of the island will be hit a bit more directly and should be fairly big. Here in Rincon, we look like we’ll be seeing just smaller scale waist to chest high surf for the coming week with a couple of flat days thrown in there before the next major pulse shows up. The pulse should at least give us a couple of days of overhead surf at the start of next week. If the fetch can setup a little more direct across the Atlantic as the week goes on this forecast can change drastically for the better. The cold-front is plenty powerful and the right combination of high pressure ridging behind it can generate a major swell event where we would see longer period NE swell for a solid week. That’s the scenario I’m hoping to see happen as this week continues. I’ll keep you posted with what I see.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.