Rincon surf forecast to go flat for a bit.
Okay, I’m tired of trying to be positive. I’m just going to lean into this one. Rincon is going to be flat as a lake for a little bit. In Febrary we had some bad flatspells but there always seemed to be some hope. The start of March isn’t even seeing that. The Bermuda high is in full effect and all winter weather is too far north and pointing all swell too far west to do anything for us. The other side of the Atlantic will continue to rage. We will continue to be surf lesson captial of the world. Some days this week won’t even be surf lessonable. Book your fishing or dive charter, go see the bio-bay (go to Rincon Vacations), or plan on doing something other than surfing. We pretty much have a summer pattern setting up already.
Exploration might possibly pay off.
Because we’re in a summer style pattern, we’re also seeing the summertime wave spots turn on. If you’re adventurous and know where to look for waves in different parts of the island, you can have some epic sessions. I really can’t say too much because most of these spots are heavily localized. I can at least say that if you know where to find waves in the summer you can probably find something to surf now.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.