Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 5, 2018

More ENE and NE surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

The first few days of November has hinted at the pattern we will most likely see continue for the rest of the month. Continued tropical waves passing through the lower latitudes while cold fronts pump out into the far North Atlantic and push swell at Europe constantly. This means the bulk of the surf we get will be from the ENE and NE angles. Though any surf is better than no surf, this angle is not very ideal for Rincon. I’m not saying there won’t be plenty of fun sessions to be had if your timing is right with tides and pick the right spot. If you begin to get annoyed at the lack of push in the waves though, you can at least understand what’s happening. Shorter period NE and ENE swell is very, very mushy in Rincon. The satellite image of current weather above is what the earth looks like from outer space when we’re going to be in this situation for some time. I would guess at least 10 days of exactly what we’ve been seeing at the beach to persist. The north side of the island will be choppy, but way more powerful and big as far as surf is concerned and any morning that the wind lets up will be way more fun up there.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.