First Big Swell of the 2014/2015 Winter Season May be Here Soon!
The models are trending on the first real dip in the jetstream in a long time. The front tied in with this dip is currently forecast to pull off Hatteras and deepen off the coast of New York. Classic cold-front swell and possibly our first big swell of the winter season might show up as early as Monday afternoon.
While we wait to see what happens next week, the surf will remain small here in Rincon. It turns out that the Tropical Disturbance near us amplified and moved a little quicker than forecast as well as the high pressure behind the previously stalled front. This means that the waves that were coming Today through Saturday have already come in (explaining the surprise waves of yesterday). We might still have some leftover background swell today and tomorrow, but by the weekend we will most likely be flat, unless this Tropical Disturbance becomes something special.
The North side of the island should have plenty of waist to chest high waves and possibly light winds from here through the weekend.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.