Get ready for some real surf!

The Bahamas buoy registered a full day of NW swell and just about every weather chart confirms that the weather from the past couple of days will push a solid run waves at Rincon, Puerto Rico. NW swells tend to show up a little earlier than the models expect so I wouldn’t be surprised if we wake up to some overhead glass with double overhead sets tomorrow. What a way to start 2017! Most of the models were pegging the afternoon for the arrival time, but I really do think we’ll see it earlier now based on real-time data.

Safety!

Don’t get yourself killed. The swell will be filling in strong and if we see double overhead or bigger conditions it will not be good for beginners. Either go to a tucked away and small spot or don’t get in the water unless you know what you’re doing. This is be the first big swell in a while and there is a lot of people on the island right now. Know your limits. Seriously.

Long term surf outlook for Rincon.

After Monday, the surf will drop down on Tuesday and turn back back to the usual NE to ENE wind swell by Wednesday and last through the rest of the forecast period. So if you’re looking for the big stuff make sure you surf tomorrow and Monday. Wednesday and beyond should still be pretty decent up North in the mornings. At the end of the forecast period models are trending on a long period NE kick back swell from this cold front. From it’s satellite presentation I would have to agree with this scenario so we might have a decent long period NE swell next weekend into next week.

Windy wind swell on endless supply.

December does tend to be the windiest month of the year here in PR. This December is no exception. The outside buoys rang up an entire day of swell 48hrs ago so it should be here by Monday morning. That’s the good news. Monday should have decent head high surf all day long. Unfortunately that full day of NE swell was followed by non-stop wind swell on the outside buoy. This means that after the NE swell runs its course we’re back to ENE wrap-around wind swell and weak N background swell. The rest of the week looks like it will have a gradual decrease in actual wind, but a steady continuation of wind swell should keep Rincon waist high with some bigger sets. The more exposed breaks on the north side of the island should see decent size throughout the week, but with fairly choppy conditions.

Keep an eye on the New Year Swell.

I called for the 3rd of January to be the first big swell of the New Year and it just might happen. Seasonally, it should happen by then. We definitely aren’t going to see it come any earlier though from what I’m seeing on satellite loops of the current winter storm systems. Unless something major changes, we’ll have to wait until the 3rd for the next big swell.

More surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico!

Don’t expect anything huge through the remainder of the year, but we should continue to see a consistent flow of decent surf and fairly good conditions through the current forecast period. The weekend will remain on the smaller side in the waist high and mushy range, but early next week should be chest to head high and super fun. The current setup in the North Atlantic seems to have put itself on repeat. We have not gone completely flat all month with the exception of one day. Though we’ve only seen one bigger day, we have had plenty of waist to chest high days. This is what next week is looking like. Monday and Tuesday should be the bigger days, but the rest of the week looks to stay in the waist to chest high range.

Anything bigger on the horizon?

Maybe. Seasonally we normally get a big swell around the start of the new year. Bear in mind that any slight dip lower or amplification of the currently forecast systems could result in a major swell event for next week. There is plenty of activity to tilt the odds in favor of more surf than there is for less surf. If it doesn’t get too big next week, my guess is that we should see something happen early in the new year. Maybe around the 3rd.