Winter Weather and Winter Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

This is not what a weather map looks like when we’re about to go flat. That giant storm far north should supply a steady stream of long period NE swell for most of the coming week. The giant storm currently over the states should provide a steady supply of swell for next week. If the timing works out, we could see some NW swell show up over the weekend but I wouldn’t get too stoked on that scenario yet. If the jetstream pulls that storm too far north we’ll have to wait for it to generate another NE swell and we’ll see no NW push initially. I’m just looking at the positive opportunity since this season has brought several beats on expectations so far. Very consistent surf is fun for everyone. Here’s how I see the week playing out:
Monday should see a strong push of NE long period swell with exposed spots remaining well overhead and tucked away spots with fun head high lines with decent power. Long period swells tend to have a decent amount of wait in between sets which could cause some frustration for the crowded spots.
Tuesday will be very similar to Monday with a slight drop in size and tucked away spots slightly smaller the more tucked away you get. Should still have some chest to head high sets in the water.
Wednesday will still have some head high sets at exposed breaks, but expect fading conditions throughout the day.
Thursday will be surf lessons delight with waist to chest high surf at exposed breaks.
Friday will be pretty much a repeat of Thursday but perhaps a little more consistent.
Saturday might see a new pulse of chest to head high surf with glassy conditions at several Rincon spots.
Sunday is currently forecast to be leftovers from whatever showed up Saturday. Don’t expect more than waist high according to the current forecast, but it wouldn’t take much to shift the forecast up so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this change.

More NW swell on the way for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico!

I like what I’m seeing right here. We’re forecast to see a dip in the jetstream off the eastern US and a very powerful storm is looking to setup a nice fetch across most of the Atlantic Ocean. This means I’m expecting a solid couple of overhead days starting Saturday and a major swell event with more overhead surf is very likely to show up by mid next week. Get ready to surf pretty much every day into 2020. Though the models aren’t currently trending on it yet, I can definitely see this forecast jumping up a notch or two for next week’s swell. I have a really good feeling about the weather setup. Though it’s too soon to tell I see way more than just a few days of waves out of this pattern. I’ll keep close watch on the satellite loops and update the forecast as things materialize.

More small surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Granted, the last weather system overperformed and we had a couple of bonus days with really good surf beyond what most models were predicting. This weekend into next week is looking very similar but I’m not seeing it get as good as this past week. Again, we won’t be flat and there will be something in the water to surf through the forecast period. Just don’t expect anything too major to show up at the beach. Bear in mind too that there is a possibility that long period ground swell from the NE could form up over the week. The far North Atlantic is currently seeing some very powerful weather. All of it is pointed at Europe as of now, but if some NE fetch sets up we could see a solid run of swell about 5 days out. I’ll try to take a closer look and update in a day or so with the next week play by play. As of now we should have an OK weekend with smaller scale surf.

High pressure moves in – small surf.

First, let me say that I don’t see it going completely flat. We have a lot of activity in the Atlantic and background swell will persist on and off throughout the forecast period. However, whenever high pressure takes center stage, we see weaker wind swell with a slightly unfavorable angle for Rincon. Again, from what I see in the weather we should still have some waist to chest high days, but don’t expect the bombing NW swell that we’ve seeing the past couple of weeks. The past couple of weeks have been a prime example of favorable angle and the classic conditions that correlate. That’s why I get so excited over NW swell. NE windswell on the other hand always tends to be a bit frustrating for me. This is because it tends to be weaker and mushy. The weekend and early next week will see the death of the NW swell event and the start of the NE windswell event. Here’s how I see things playing out.

Saturday will most likely drop off to waist high with glassy conditions at exposed breaks.
Sunday could possibly see one last NW background pulse fill in before letting high pressure windswell take over. Waist to chest high surf with decent power and angle and glassy conditions should persist through the day.
Monday will be somewhat of a replay of Sunday only more short lived. Expect the winds to pick up considerably around noon and turn everything to wind chop later in the day.
Tuesday is currently forecast to be the official arrival of NE windswell, but no matter what the automated forecast tools tell you, don’t expect more than waist to chest high with weak and mushy conditions. I might be wrong on this (and I hope I am), but high pressure windswell never has the same power as solid groundswell.
Wednesday will probably be a surf lesson wave in the waist high range.
Thursday models are hinting at some long period NE swell to show up in the chest to head high range. We’ll have a better idea by Tuesday if this is going to materialize. I am inclined to believe it as the North Atlantic has been very active so far.
Friday is currently the official arrival of a small sized, long-period NE swell in the chest to head high range. Again I’ll have to confirm this by mid-week next week.