Possible Tropical Swell on the way for Surfing Puerto Rico.

Though not officially a named storm yet, Possible Tropical Depression Six is getting organized off the coast of Africa and already bringing some heavy weather to the outer islands off the coast. It looks like the storm is bound to continue in it’s organization and strength. Whether or not this system becomes a wave-maker will depend on the route it takes near the end of next week and how far west it is able to move. As previously stated, I am not happy with the steering currents I’m seeing in general this hurricane season. Ideally this storm would be far enough north of Puerto Rico on its approach to not be a safety issue. In addition, if the storm tracks enough north to pull the winds south and travels enough far enough west, we would see a several day run of swell with offshore winds at the most exposed breaks. The steering currents are tending to favor a lower latitude path across the Atlantic which means the possible collision of the storm with our island or a storm that passes underneath us. Either scenario we get no surf and possible damage. We want this storm to climb latitude.

Where did our wind shear force field go?

The easiest way to explain the map above is that the green areas favor tropical development, the yellow is marginal, and red prevents and inhibits formation/growth. We had a solid barrier of red in front of this storm all week, but now it’s as if the ocean is giving it a free pass. If the steering currents keep it in low shear, we might end up with a powerful storm by next weekend. I hope not.

What do I actually think will happen?

My opinion is that this storm will track north into the shear and disipate/die long before it reaches Puerto Rico and there is nothing to worry about. Also we will probably get no swell from it. Be on the lookout for early cold-fronts instead. We stay flat for the foreseeable future. Why all the discussion above then? It’s about stating the possibilities regardless of what I think will happen. Also my opinion is just that – an opinion, not fact. I am not always right.

Plenty of weather, but no waves for surfing Rincon.

Though the Atlantic has not been overly quiet this summer, the pattern of flat and minimal background swell will continue. The only notable feature is that there is almost always a constant flow of open tropical waves passing in the Caribbean. This is why the southeastern corner of Puerto Rico has been having a great summer. Other spots in the Caribbean are probably doing pretty good too. If the winds ever calm down, the north side of the island can be fun too if your expectations are low. Either, way we’re stuck with more of what we have been having for a while now with no change forecast for the next 7 days. At least the fishing has been great!

Tropical Forecast for Surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico

I don’t like the steering pattern we currently have. There is a steady flow of southern waves. So far the wind shear has formed an impenetrable shield in front of the Islands down here. If that shield goes away, we could see a rather destructive September unless the steering currents change. Surface lows in the North Atlantic forming into subtropical and tropical systems is preferred! This would mean storms forming far away from us and giving us nothing but swell for our troubles. Southern storms forming is what I don’t like. Fortunately we’ve already seen a pattern of surface lows in the North Atlantic. I would like to see that continue and also be joined by some early cold-fronts. If we can keep our wind-shear shield, September will be a breeze.

One flat, hot, crazy summer in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We have plenty of days with micro surf good for kids and family surf lessons but no real rideable surf in the foreseeable future. From a forecasting standpoint, what annoys me the most is that there is always the possibility of some weather system bringing a little wave to our shores so there is a “possibility” for surf just about every week. However, week after week, we stay flat, hot, and farted on by the Atlantic.

Go exploring if you want to surf.

Just about everywhere else in the world has waves right now so a surf trip to anywhere in the Pacific might be in order. If you can’t flee the island or the country, exploring the south and southeast of the islands will pay off. I’ve been seeing posts of waist high or bigger waves just about every day from the southeast and east coast of PR. I really can’t say too much more than that, but if you know where to look the weather should continue to support fun waves over there.