Get ready to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico!

We have a double down. The big storm will send us nice long period N and NE swell while the hurricane keeps the winds offshore for north facing beaches and dumps it’s own smaller scale N swell into the mix. Later in the forecast period some NNW swell might even show up on the beach. Long story short, get ready to surf a lot! I’m still seeing tomorrow through Friday as the biggest days but there should be plenty of leftovers through the weekend with a shot at another pulse early next week.

Hurricane Jose – more surf for Puerto Rico.

If Jose really does do that drunken merry-go-round then we should be hit with another solid batch of swell. The fading strength of the storm isn’t good though. Another drop in pressure would kick the swell up a notch, but it’s looking like conditions won’t really allow that. Therefore, the movement of the storm is what will govern the swell we get more than anything at this point. Once it moves downward and then stops we should see some long period swell show up within 12-24 hours. As of now Wednesday through Friday should be a few feet overhead and glassy at all north facing beaches. There are plenty of barrel spots that should be firing.

Good Surf Forecast for Rincon!

The weather changed things up a bit for the better. The same scenario i predicted is happening just a little more delayed and with a little more amplification. This means instead of a short window of swell we should have the entire weekend. The storm that couldn’t form got completely absorbed with the front and the front is going to setup beautifully over the Atlantic for an early dose of cold-front style swell. It’s not going to be huge, but I don’t think anyone is picky right now. Expect the swell to build a notch each day and max out on Saturday and fade out through Sunday. Monday will have some fun surf lesson leftovers here in Rincon. I’m expecting some head high fun on Saturday. Hope you got your dings fixed.

Waiting for surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

I think we’ll have a little mini-swell next week. As a weak front pulls off the states and sweeps that tropical blob along with it, I’m hoping we see some small scale north swell show up here in Rincon. We’ll probably see some waist to chest high surf at some point. From sat images I’d say within 4 days so that would be around Tuesday. I’m not anticipating more than a 12 hour run of swell for for the waist to chest high conditions but a smaller surf lesson wave can persist through to the end of the week. Tropics are not looking too exciting for surf in Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Gert – Surf for Rincon?

I sure hope so! However, there is a reason why I chose the current wind field as the main image of this post. The wind field is pathetic and the pressure is also not very low. We need more wind, lower pressure, and a more symmetrical storm to get any decent surf. Here’s the deal, Gert should be in a favorable environment over the next day and a half. Because Tropical Storm Gert is sitting in an ideal location of our swell window, if the storm does blow up we’ll be surfing here in Rincon for a few days with very good conditions. We have hope! Let’s all start chanting together now – GERT! GERT! GERT! GERT!

Dealing without surf during a summertime flatspell in Rincon.

Just as there is no one way to grieve, there is no one way to find healing or peace during a summertime flatspell. Accepting your own emotional response as normal within the grieving process will help. Accepting where you are today, without judgement, is also critical. There is no timeline for a summertime flatspell. Period. The loss of surf creates a void; that void is real and cannot be replaced. In time, life will feel less chaotic. In time, and with the right support in place, the hurt and pain will feel less intense and less extreme. Some believe that in our grief and mourning during a summertime flatspell we find a way to relearn the world. The experience of living through the summertime flatspell in Rincon is different for everyone, but it is possible to get through it. Acceptance of the flatspell is an acknowledgement that your life is different now, and that your life before the loss of waves and life after the season can both have meaning.

Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way – here’s the surf forecast:

Flat in Rincon. All of the action is in the Pacific. Seems like there’s a new hurricane forming over there every day. Every tiny blob in the ITCZ is exploding in the Pacific as soon as it escapes the Atlantic and Caribbean. That pattern looks solid to continue for the next two weeks. There is an open wave just about every 15 degrees apart going east from here. There is tons of heat but the heavy sands/dry air and high pressure over the Atlantic will keep them at bay. They will all form intense storms in the Pacific. The nonstop flow of waves traveling in the lower Caribbean should at least keep the summertime spots in the SE corner of the island working. That’s the best call right now if you want to surf in Puerto Rico.

Meet Tropical Storm Don – Any Surf?

For the southeast corner of the island – yes. For everywhere else – no. But at least we’re seeing the tropics start to pick up. Shear has been fairly heavy in our swell window lately which isn’t good for future waves that we would want to see form into storms north of PR and out in the open Atlantic. I still think we’re going to have some decent tropical surf this season. If you’re able to make the roadtrip over to the SE corner, Wednesday looks like the day to do it. When storms track as low as this one it tends to work in the favor of most of the spots over there and keeps the winds under control. Most of the swell will be from the movement of the storm itself so don’t expect much leftovers. When the main pulse hits it should have some head high surf with decent conditions. Also, there will probably be millions of people running over each other in the line-up at the most common SE spot.

Tropical Surf Possible Next Week for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

All of the conditions seem to be coming together nicely for 94L and just about every forecast model has been calling for development by this weekend for about a week now. I guess it’s safe to finally make mention of it in the forecast. I really don’t want to spook this thing away, but there really isn’t much working against the weather system currently. As far as surf goes, path will be the most important factor. We should have a developed storm any minute now, but where it goes will determine if any swell makes it into Rincon. The east coast of the island should be going off, and the north side of the island should see some head high and bigger surf as well. We’ll have to see what actually happens over the weekend, but we could possibly be surfing by Monday of next week here in Rincon. We have some background long period NE swell that might wrap in and sneak under the radar while we wait for 94L to do its thing so keep checking the report.

Wunderground has an awesome in-depth article about 94L and if you want to read it go to:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/slowly-surely-94l-organizing-tropical-atlantic

Will we have a season like 2005? Non-Stop Surf?

The short answer is simple – no. That year was a fluke and if it is part a longer cycle we may be waiting a really long time for another year like that. Nonetheless it gives us a reminder to expect the unexpected and realize that anything is possible. My personal assessment is that we will have a decent tropical surf season (officially called Hurricane Season). I’ve been doing a lot of reading on how solar maximum and minimum cycles affect global climate change. In my opinion it seems to be an element commonly overlooked but a powerful indicator to extreme weather. According to actual experts we can expect to see somewhat of a cooling pattern over the next few decades as opposed to continued global warming. I believe that because this is a gradual process, the ocean heat that has built up already will be able to interact with cooler upper atmospheric temps and lead to stronger storms in general – including tropical weather mostly in the form of more persistent sub-tropical and post-tropical storms. This means I hope to see a lot of tropical storms and hurricanes continue to dump swell after they go post-tropical.

So what about the actual surf forecast for Rincon?

There’s a reason I chose this weather post for the forecast. We’re quiet for surf. We might have some knee high surf lessons bumps for kids, but nothing noteworthy for the near term. That can change quickly if any of the ITCZ activity develops or bumps north. There’s no shortage of tropical waves moving off of Africa already so we can be on alert at any given moment, but sitting in front of satellite loops all day will be like watching water waiting for it to boil on the stove. It will feel like forever if you just sit there and stare at it. My advice is to be productive and find other ways to have fun as you patiently await the coming tropical surf.

Catch some summertime surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We have a couple of days of Long period NE swell to look forward to this week. Rincon should have some waist to chest high surf with glassy conditions over the next couple of days. The usual spots in Aguadilla and Isabela should be considerably bigger and breaking fairly well. The weekend looks to go a bit flat in Rincon, but once again Aguadilla and Isabela should still have a little something to play on. More good news is that there is more surf forecast for the end of the forecast period so around this time next week we could be surfing again. This really is a great June! Don’t believe me? Use the archives on this site to see that we haven’t had a June like this in the past 8 years. About 10 years or so is the last time I can remember such a decent amount of surf in June.