Hermine is right in our swell window – NW swell on the way!

Ok I know I’m kind of the boy who cried wolf at this point and everyone hates me. And yes everyone is generally angry due to extremely hot temps and extreme surf deprivation. My bad call on Gaston couldn’t have come at a worst time. However, 75W to 65W and 40N to 25N is generally the giant box that is the ideal NW swell generation zone. Hermine has a very large wind field and has been sitting right in the box for a few days and is forecast to stay in that general area and strengthen. We SHOULD get some NW during this coming week. The tropical blob that is going to be passing over us will serve to keep the winds offshore but probably won’t make any swell of its own. If anything it will add some wobble into the mix out there in the ocean. Tuesday/Wednesday has consistently been pegged as the the biggest days of NW swell. I’m doubling down on Tuesday. I think Tuesday will be the best day.

Rincon got skunked on Hurricane Gaston

Other parts of the island got decent swell from Gaston. Rincon had one semi-glorious afternoon and evening. It was better than flat, but nothing spectacular. I’m reminded of why 65W is such an important line to cross. Tropical systems that remain east of that line tend to disappoint. I got all hyped up for nothing. I really thought we’d have some long period swell for most of the week. I hang my head in shame for they were all but wishes and dreams.

How about some surf for next week?

I hope so. An early season coldfront is expected to pull off the states. It’s the front that is currently swooping up Hermine. The combination of both systems is currently causing the models to call for some possible swell for the middle of next week. If it plays out as anticipated, we could see some super fun NW swell. I would be very happy to see this happen.

Hurricane Gaston goes cat 3 and makes surf!

Get ready to surf. You have fair warning, get your affairs in order now. Best case scenario, we could see perfect waves from Wednesday through next Monday. Hurricane Gaston went category 3 and though his position is not ideal for the swell to reach Rincon and he’ll be moving away from us, he’s powerful enough to make us some medium period swell that should wrap into Rincon. The North coast of the island should see plenty of overhead surf and glassy conditions. From Fajardo through Aguadilla, that whole coast should be firing. Rincon, should at least see some waist to chest high glassy surf each day though. Give the swell about two days to get here. We’ll see what we get on Wednesday. The remnants of TD 8 should blend with a weak front and that should push some more swell at us for early next week.

Storm Surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

As I promised, we will have surf all weekend. The conditions might be a bit stormy and treacherous over the next couple of days, but the weather should clear up for the weekend. The north side of the island is going to have some overhead surf on just about the entire coast. Winds should be dead, but the conditions won’t necessarily be glassy. The weather system currently closest to us isn’t the most organized which means any swell it carries with it will probably be a bit wobbly. Here in Rincon expect some waist to chest high surf to show up from Friday through Sunday with a chance at the biggest surf on Sunday. Gaston will be the deciding factor as to what happens next week. If he can pass 65W then we have a much better chance at having waves for most of next week. If he keeps his current track it will be more of a North coast of PR surf event. Have fun and be safe!

Storms are on the way – surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico too!

Though it’s not all quite on our doorstep yet, plenty of surf generating weather is on the way! There are multiple tropical waves coming off Africa, high heat over a lot of the Atlantic and Caribbean, and we already have Tropical Storm Fiona formed and ready. A steady stream of low pressure systems will be occupying the Northern Atlantic as well. But the most 100% guarantee that there will be waves next weekend is this – I will be out of town. You’re welcome. You all are officially going to surf your brains out next weekend. NOT this weekend. Next weekend.

Here’s the breakdown for the surf forecast:

First off we have Tropical Storm Fiona. I wouldn’t get overly excited about her just yet. She has to survive the gauntlet over the next 3 days and it’s not looking too good and she might not make it. If she does survive, she’ll have a chance to strengthen right in our swell window due North of Puerto Rico. No matter what, at this point the Northeastern coast of PR should get good surf and so should most of the North side of the island. Rincon will only get decent waves if she can reform in our swell window. Any bump up in the intensity forecast and Rincon will be more likely to get waves from her.

Other than Fiona, we have plenty of tropical waves that can follow a closer path to the island and give us decent surf without having to increase to much in intensity as it is. If anything does actually form between now and next weekend then our chances increase drastically. The idea here is that since there’s so many darts being thrown towards the board, at least one of them is likely to hit it.

As for the low pressure systems pulling of the United States, these systems will be likely to play a role in the path taken by the tropical systems and can help push the surf up at the same time. If a decent low pulls off the states making some fun background swell AND pulls a tropical wave into our swell window, we get the chance of having more surf!

Active weather in the surf forecast for surfing Puerto Rico.

The endless supply of tropical waves coming off of Africa is really starting to pile up across the Atlantic. All this heat should give them plenty to feed on. Over the weekend we should see one pass just north of our island and give us a possible little bump. In addition we have a weak low that pulled off the states and is sitting in our swell window. Any increase in the intensity of any of the above mentioned weather systems and we could be looking at some fun surf. As it goes now, the best chance for quality surf here in Rincon is looking to show up early next week. Over the weekend, the north side of the island should see the most size from this tropical system with some head high surf at the right spot. The conditions might be a bit nasty though.

Weather patterns are on constant repeat – no surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

I haven’t updated the forecast in a long while. It’s because it was exactly the same every single day. The same weak low’s would pull of the states, the same endless tropical waves would pull off Africa, and the same surf forecast would watch them all dissipate and disintegrate into nothing the closer they got to Puerto Rico. It seemed like whenever anything would ever get close to our swell window it would disappear. We would get tiny background swells that were perfect for pushing little kids and first timers for surf lessons, but not much for anyone else. Will it continue to do this? Yes. However, statistically speaking we should see some tropical systems start to form in September and as early as late August. We have had no shortage of tropical waves. In that sense we’ve had a very active season so far with plenty of tropical possibilities, but none of them have materialized into anything for surfing here in Rincon. The southeast corner of Puerto Rico has seemed to be having a great summer with several days around chest high over there. The north side of the island has had plenty of waist high weak windswell so far. Rincon has just remained hot and tiny. I’ll have a separate post up soon with how I’ve managed to keep my sanity over the past couple of months.

Background swell and flatness for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We are in the summer and it’s common to stay flat at this time of year. However, we at least have some longboardable background pulses that should show up over the next few weeks. Because the swell will be quite weak, surfable conditions may come and go at random depending on a variety of factors including tide, wind, and spot. For the most part though don’t expect any swell to rage unless we get a good tropical system in our swell window.

My Tropical Prediction: Active Season.

“It’s too hot for a penguin to be running around, we gotta get you to the zoo!”
– Billy Madison.

This summer is going to be a hot one! Even though it seems the earth is already doing it’s best to channel the heat northward by other means at the moment, we’re still going to see a heavy build up of heat in the tropics. The ITCZ has been blowing up regularly on sat images. Within a month’s time we should have plenty of fuel to develop some storms. Heat is the food source for tropical systems. If we can get some periods of low wind shear we’re bound to see some action in the common development areas of the Tropical Atlantic as the passing waves feast on the unbearable heat of the tropics.