Surf is on the way! Get ready.

Well it seems that that our collective mind willing worked to get the storm out over the ocean sooner and stronger than previously forecast. Unfortunately I guess we all forgot to add a lower latitude push to our telepathic requests. The storm has in fact pushed out to sea and intensified, however it’s way up North by Nova Scotia. This means that the swell will need more time to get here. Arrival is still set for Monday. The period should be decent as we have hard north winds in our swell window with a decent fetch. The swinging of the trough can still put some NNW angle on it as well. Next week is going to rage! Unfortunately so will the winds so we might have some nastiness mid week.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

Friday: Pretty much flat, but maybe a knee high crumbler at the most exposed breaks.
Saturday: Some knee high cumblers for day 1 of the contest with super glassy conditions and no wind.
Sunday: Some waist high peelers for day 2 of the contest with glassy conditions and light wind. Hopefully we’ll see some chest high sets on occasion.
Monday: Swell shows up with a decent period and should be a couple feet overhead on sets and powerful early morning. By the end of the day we should see double overhead surf. The wind will pick up slightly but should be just the right amount of offshore for west facing spots to go off all day.
Tuesday: Swell sticks around with a bit more wind. The surf should stay in the 2-3ft overhead range through the day.
Wednesday: Massive windy swell in the double overhead range working only at super protected spots.
Thursday: Even more massive double to triple overhead gnarly wind swell with tucked away nooks and crannies working fairly well (i hope).

This is the storm that could be making some waves next week!

So far Monday and Tuesday seem to be when the models are calling for some swell to show up from the storm above. Bear in mind that we are still several days out and the a lot of things have to happen for this to pan out. If the storm strengthens a bit and pulls off the states sooner, we’ll see some swell sooner. This is what everyone who is doing the contest this weekend and who is involved in throwing the contest is hoping for. If enough people stare at this storm on sat images and mind-will it to strengthen and dip out into the Atlantic early, it just might happen. Seasonally, however, it’s more likely to come in a little later than expected. Plus the models are giving the storm a bit of a higher latitude track which tends to delay swell arrival on account of the swell being generated further away from our island. The period is looking a bit longer with this scenario though. Only time will tell.

Here’s what is currently forecast to happen:

Wednesday – Leftover wind swell in the waist high range with some bigger sets and clean conditions in the morning.
Thursday – Mushy background swell in the knee to waist high range perfect for surf lessons.
Friday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Saturday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Sunday – Lake flat conditions most of the day with some knee high wind chop by the evening.
Monday – Chest to head high and glassy conditions in the morning. Swell will build to a few feet overhead by the end of the day with strong winds as the swell fills in.
Tuesday – 2ft Overhead with some double overhead sets and windy in the afternoon. Find wind blocked spots and surf to your hearts content. The swell period should be decent and provide plenty of power.

Swell in the short term, small in the long term.

It looks like plenty of swell has finally been built up in the Atlantic to keep Rincon happy with surf from Sunday through Tuesday. Expect surf to build into waist to chest high on Sunday with light winds and glassy conditions for the first half of the day. On Monday the swell should be decent in the head high range with clean conditions in the first half of the day. Tuesday will stay chest to head high in the morning with fading conditions as the days go on. Beyond that we will have small surf in Rincon until the next week. Notice all the high pressure over the states in the image above? That’s what is going to dominate most of the week and next weekend and why this next swell probably won’t work after Tuesday here in Rincon. The north side of the island should have some decent sized wind swell with semi-sloppy conditions every day of the week. It definitely won’t be flat up there, but the form will probably not be the best. Should the winds relax one night, the morning could be fun!

Possible big swell in the extended forecast.

Granted, 10 days out in the forecast period carries a ridiculous level of uncertainty. However, after a bit of a flatspell from mid-week through the weekend, it would make sense that something major would be on the horizon that far out. A few of the prediction models are starting to anticipate a lower latitude cold front right in our swell window for a decent NW swell. This scenario is what I will be watching for closely as the week goes on.

Another round of swell for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

It looks like the super trough is going to pull out into the Atlantic far enough and have a fairly strong high pressure build in behind it. This means we should see some bigger surf this weekend into early next week, but the form might not be perfection. There might be a lot of wind out there in the ocean. Also, as a general rule of thumb, high pressure swell tends to be bumpy and wobbly. Tucked away spots that are protected from the wind should groom it up nicely though.

Here’s how I see the next few days playing out:

Thursday: Small to flat conditions perfect for surf lessons.
Friday: Small to flat conditions possibly too small for even surf lessons.
Saturday: Head high with sets in the 2-3ft overhead range and rough seas and heavy wind.
Sunday: Head high with sets in the 2-3ft overhead range with calmer conditions and lighter wind.
Monday: Probably the best form and longer period swell with offshores at west facing beaches. The surf should still be a couple of feet overhead on sets. There might be a bit of wait between bigger sets as well.
Tuesday: Chest to head high cleaner leftovers with a choppy afternoon.
Wednesday: Knee to waist high surf lessons wave at most exposed breaks.

Weaker storm, higher latitude, smaller surf for Rincon.

We have had an incredible run of swell for the past two and a half weeks. This coming week will quiet down a bit and be a more traditional weak cold front swell with shorter period and more NNE angle than what we’ve gotten used to over the past few weeks. We should stay chest to head high for most of the new week with bigger sets on Tuesday and Wednesday. The mornings should be glassy, but the afternoons will probably be super windy. The position of the storm still lends itself to about two days of setup and swell generation time before the surf will pick up again so I’m thinking Monday might start off small. If the storm moves out quicker and gets it’s northerly fetch going earlier, Monday will start off bigger. Have fun!

Surfing NW swell in Rincon all week – happy dance!

The buoys are firing! This swell is gonna rage. The wind is the hard part to predict. From the looks of things, we’ll have glassy conditions everywhere in the early morning hours and every spot should be working. In the afternoons we might have onshore seabreeze everywhere or dead winds at random unless something more dominant takes control of the wind. I still expect to see some double overhead conditions when the bulk of the pulse shows up either tomorrow or Wednesday, but for the most part this swell shouldn’t be out of control. The surf should be powerful and have decent form. I love NW swell. This storm dipped off the states below NC so we should see a lot of west in this swell. The Bahamas buoy is currently reading 14ft at 13 seconds from the WNW. I expect to see at least half of that reach into Rincon with another few seconds on the period for good measure out of the NW. This storm looks beautiful on sat images! It’s moving away from us fairly quickly, but some decent fetch should setup behind it. I expect chest to head high conditions to persist through the end of the week and hopefully into the weekend. Tuesday/Wednesday will be considerably larger with some double overhead sets.

The wind swell shows up in Rincon!

The wind swell was solid on the outside buoys for about a day and a half after making my previous post. Today was the arrival so we could still see some of the wind waves show up through tomorrow after all. Granted, the form is a bit wobbly, but the there isn’t too much onshore wind at the beach so the rides are still fairly decent. Sunday is still looking like flatsville.

Next week’s swell is looking awesome!

It won’t be as huge as initially anticipated, but the next coldfront swell is going to be high quality! NW angle and long period in the 15 to 16 seconds range means a heavier wave with a lot of power. Even if the swell height doesn’t get much higher than 4-6ft, that angle and long period will make some sick sets near double overhead. Everyone play nice and have fun. Stay safe! If you’re out of your league, stay out of the water.

High pressure wind swell for the weekend.

I kept looking at the automated surf forecast tools with confusion over the past couple of days. I was seeing a lot of surf that was supposed to show up here in Rincon, but I wasn’t seeing it on the buoys. In fact, I don’t see anything favorable on the buoys for this weekend. When a NE swell is going to show up, you’ll normally see it on 41049 36-48hrs ahead of time. As of writing this there is no NE swell on that buoy. Looking at the live satellite animation on this page the only thing i could spot that could be faking out the models is high pressure wind swell. As a rule of thumb, ENE high pressure wind swell normally means flat for Rincon. I am kind of going against all of the big dogs with this forecast, but right now I’m calling for Rincon to stay small to flat until next week- knee to waist high for the most part. Next week is a different story.

We could see some massive swell next week.

If we get a low enough dip in the jetstream off the United States over the weekend, the next storm could swoop up a lower latitude system that is developing and make something spectacular happen. The models have been trending on this scenario to different degrees over the past few runs, but uncertainty is high. I’ll keep watching it to see if it pans out, but next week might bring the biggest swell of the season.

Weaker storm means weaker waves, but the surf should still be fun.

This next cold front doesn’t have as much power as the previous one, and the fetch behind the storm isn’t that strong or lined up at the moment. Most of the strongest winds are ahead of the storm and pushing the bulk of the swell out away from land and out to sea. Basically, even though the satellite presentation of the weather system looks impressive, this will not be a swell anywhere near as awesome as this past week’s swell. Even still, the lower latitude of the storm and the general position of the front should help some NNW swell creep in to Rincon early next week. Here’s how I see it playing out:

Saturday – Small to flat surf perfect for first time surfers, and kids.
Sunday – flat to knee high at best.
Monday – Chest to head high with clean conditions just about everywhere.
Tuesday – Chest to head high with glassy conditions in the morning and heavier winds in the afternoon.
Wednesday – Waist to chest high leftovers glassy in the morning, choppy by late morning and early afternoon.
Thursday – Knee to waist high surf with glassy conditions only in the early morning.

Classic NW cold front swell for Puerto Rico.

I am really liking this cold front! Plenty of fetch, low enough latitude, trough whipping out just right. Granted there isn’t a super strong high pressure behind the system, but look at all the gale force winds around it – it doesn’t need the turbo charger because it’s got plenty of power at stock. The oldschoolers here have told me in the past that before the internet and hi-res satellite imagery they just knew that if the winds blew south before a winter storm for 1 day the swell would be pretty decent. 2 days of south winds and the swell would be great! 3 or 4 days and you would have epic conditions. If the current forecast sticks we’ll have a great swell! I think this swell event is going to bigger and better than most people realize. The swell angle will have a lot west in it which makes for bigger and better conditions than one would think just looking at the swell height and period.

Sunday – Look for waist to chest high swell to persist in the morning and fade out into the early afternoon. Some of the front runners of the new swell might show up before dark with some head high sets.

Monday – Building NW swell that should reach double overhead by night time with light offshores for west facing beaches.

Tuesday – Double overhead and bigger all day with hard offshore winds at west facing beaches.

Wednesday – Head high with bigger sets and well groomed glassy conditions in the morning at west facing beaches.

Thursday – Chest high glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning.

Friday – Small surf lessons conditions at all Rincon breaks with glassy conditions.