Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – August 21, 2015

JG — Fri, 21 Aug 2015 16:59:15 +0000

Are we all gonna die?!

I certainly hope not. I do not believe this storm will cause as much damage as the sensational news reports would have us all believe. I started to see the current forecast track as a possibility a couple of NHC forecast updates prior – the storm would end up getting picked up north just enough to hit our little island straight across. As a rule of thumb everyone should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Be prepared to be without water and power for at least three days and possibly a week if we get more than we bargained for.

What I think will actually happen:

The storm is picking up some strong winds, but it’s a tiny storm and it’s favorable conditions for strengthening will soon come to an end. Hurricane Danny will be sheared and dried up to a very weak tropical system by the time it gets close to our island. I think the forecast track will shift a little more north than it’s current route. I see a tropical blob quickly passing over San Juan, but covering most of the island with rain early next week for about one day. The forward speed is forecast to accelerate as it passes us and this is one scenario that has always remained for every forecast update from the NHC. The realistic damage that I foresee is some flash flooding in the Caguas area and the super drought stricken south end of the island. The wind won’t be too bad, but it doesn’t take much to knock the power out for a day or two. I think what a lot of people don’t realize is that many neighborhoods lose power at least twice a week for 4-8 hours at a time. Areas prone to losing power will probably lose power for a day or so regardless of what this storm does.

What about the surf?

As the storm approaches, the east coast and southeast corner of Puerto Rico will see some big ground swell. If you can time it right to get favorable winds before the destruction ensues you’ll be able to find some sick barrels at many of the hidden spots over there. The north side of the island will see some head high surf with crazy currents and sideshore winds. Rincon will probably get some waist high wind wobblers. If the storm can regenerate over the Bahamas we might get some kickback from the NW. Since the storm will always be moving away from Rincon, the chances of considerable surf are low. If this thing can blow up again off the coast of FL or NC then we can start to hope for bigger surf with south winds.

Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – August 18, 2015

JG — Tue, 18 Aug 2015 23:03:22 +0000

We finally have a tropical system with some potential!

Don’t everyone look at it at the same time. We don’t want to scare it away. Tropical Storm Danny has formed in the open Atlantic between us and Africa. I was looking at the wind shear maps a few days ago and noticed that a small bubble of light shear was starting to form right about where Danny is right now and where he’ll be in another couple of days. If that sticks he might form into a Hurricane as currently forecast. As far as waves are concerned his track is currently set to take the low road underneath PR. If this happens he will most likely to be sheared apart the closer he gets to the island, but he’ll give a solid push of swell at the southeast. He’ll be a big enough system to make some swell on the north side of the island as well due to the pressure gradient and movement of the system. We have a high chance of surf one way or another from this system for just about every part of the island except Rincon.

What do we have to look forward to in Rincon?

Well the dream scenario is that Danny takes the high road and then parks just north of the Bahamas and goes cat 5 only to retrograde east southeast before going out to sea. There is about a .000000001% chance of that happening. If it did it would be EPIC. Rincon would turn into Indo. But let’s focus on reality. I’m seeing plenty of activity on satellite imagery off the eastern coast of the US. Nothing major, but there should be enough weather to keep a knee to waist high longboard wave pointed at Rincon for a few days to come. The lower tides will be best to welcome the tiny background swell. This week has been great for surf lessons so far and it looks to continue for a few days.

We’re heading into September, if it’s gonna happen – it’s gonna happen now.

Between now and the end of September is when the tropics peak. If we’re gonna see any action, now is the time it will happen. Fix any dings in your boards and get an early prep for the season. We might actually get to surf some real waves before November.

danny – Rincon Surf Report and Wave Forecast for Puerto Rico – Surfing Puerto Rico