September in November – Plenty of Surf for Puerto Rico

November Outlook: We have an ocean full of heat and a northern hemisphere trying desperately to cool off. Seasonally, we will start to see more fronts pull off the Eastern US this time of year. The high heat in the Atlantic combined with the unending march of tropical waves off Africa means that we will continue to see tropical disturbances from lower latitudes pulled north and interact with the frontal systems. The end result is a consistent flow of surf. Not the best quality of surf at times. Swell generated from multiple systems tend to make for challenging beach conditions when everything doesn’t line up just right, but hey – at least we’re not going to be flat. The tropics interacting with cold-fronts is generally a September type of scenario, but we’re seeing it happen right now at the end of October into the start of November. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see a hurricane form in December.

Near Term: Puerto Rico will continue to see smaller scale surf all week. The wind flow will most likely remain dead in the mornings and south in the afternoons. We can all hope for more rain in Rincon as satellite imagery is showing a lot of moisture on it’s way to the island. The tide sensitive spots will also be the best bet for getting a little more size throughout the background swell fluctuations. My advice is the mid-high to high incoming stretch at shallower breaks. Have fun!

Hurricane Lee Massive Storm, Massive Surf.

Now that’s what I call a windfield! It’s easy to get caught up in just the wind speed, the low pressure, or the category strength of a storm. Unfortunatley, all of that doesn’t matter much if the wind field is small. In the case of Hurricane Lee, such a large wind-field affects more of the ocean and as a result creates more swell in all directions. It is also not lacking in high wind, low pressure, and a major hurricane. What I’m getting at is today and tomorrow will most likely be double overhead and even bigger at more exposed locations. In other good news, as the storm moves away, we will have another 5 days or so of decent surf on the slow decline. Plenty of good sessions to be had. The other good news is that by that time we’ll be looking at the next long track storm with the next possible swell.

Hurricane Lee is About to Lay Some Massive Surf Down!

It’s September and we finally had a drop in the wind shear with a long track storm that pulled off Africa. With the insanely hot water temps, and no wind shear around, Hurricane Lee turned into a Category 5 Hurricane overnight. Intensity will fluctuate randomly from this point, but the wind-field will continue to expand and the eye of the storm will go through regular replacement cycles. The forecast path of the storm basically has it meandering right in our swell window. High surf advisories will be in effect. This swell is going to rage. I am pretty amped that we’ve had very consistent surf without the usual crowds that have destroyed my stoke the past few seasons. I got to surf a few days ago without having to dodge a single foam board. It was amazing. We should have literally a week of perfect waves (maybe longer) from this storm once the swell shows up. The north side of the island will see the goodies first, probably at the end of the weekend. Then starting next week we should have some NE angled long period swell for most of next week in the head high to a couple feet overhead range. If Lee really does stay due north of the island and continue to pump, we could see some N and NNW long period swell show up next weekend. We could easily see some double-overhead action. There will be plenty of spots to surf and the vibe is finally pretty chill right now. Don’t mess that up. Everyone play nice and have fun.

Multiple Tropical Systems Finally Give Rincon, PR Surf!

2023 and this is what we need to finally get some decent surf – three large tropical weather systems and a powerful trough to push them eastward. We’ve had Hurricane Franklin as a huge storm right in our swell window for a long time. I can remember weaker storms being in the same place doing the same thing and having waves for weeks. I have no idea why the earth doesn’t like to give Rincon waves this Hurricane Season, but all of that is about to change. Starting from today we should see at least a week of solid chest to head high surf with some bigger days scattered in. The tides will be important. Tropical swell tends like incoming tides. The varying water levels at the beach will also affect the breaking wave though so a lot of spots might be bigger on the incoming tide, but closing out more unless you know the right chunk of reef or sand bar that will be working well with all that extra water. The multiple storms will also result in multiple swells which will sometimes play nice with each other, and sometimes will get in each other’s way. Though we will have good waves, there will still be lulls and fluctuations. Stay patient, spread out, and have fun.

Windy Windswell Continues for Surfing Puerto Rico

The next 5-7 days will have plenty of small to medium sized surf with plenty of wind. Expect conditions to fluctuate regularly as multiple windswells and groundswells come and go as they please. It’s why for the most part some chest high surf should persist at most Rincon beaches. However, the wind will definitely limit which surf spots will have clean conditions. We have heavy wind for as long as the forecast models can see. In the long term, I’ve been anticipating the pattern of late season fronts forming hybrid system in March. What we’re seeing now with such high pressure persisting over Puerto Rico helps support a pattern shift in march where systems can push into our swell window better and amplify. For now we have a windswell high pressure pattern probably through the end of February.

Major Swell Event for Surfing Puerto Rico.

Over the weekend we had the necessary weather for this week’s starter waves. However, that system was a bit sporadic and violent. The resulting waves were big on arrival but quickly faded away. The surf was also prone to fluctuation throughout the day. This next event, however, is looking quite impressive in real time data. We should see some longer period swell show up on Thursday and last through the weekend. There will be waves. The quality of those waves may be poor for most of the swell event. The strong high pressure over the island and resulting extreme winds will not only work against the incoming swell, it may throw it’s own wind wave into the mix which may serve to spoil what would otherwise be perfect waves. So the moral of the story is don’t expect perfection the entire time. There may be good moments each day where things line-up, but if you fly down specifically for this swell just know that it won’t be perfect the whole trip and the bigger days may be challenging.

Small Windswell Continues with Better Surf on the Horizon.

Here in Rincon we will continue with small scale, mushy, bumpy, weak, wind swell. These conditions will persist through the weekend. But there is hope. If the current model trends materialize, we could see a massive fetch setup that would dump some sizeable surf with a couple of clean days our way. We’ll know on Saturday and Sunday if the weather is actually on track to dump a decent swell at us for next week. Don’t get too amped up though. STRONG high pressure is forecast to build in behind the storm system which would result in heavy trade winds. The good stuff might only be a couple of days before more wind slop dominates. Overall, I’m expecting February to be kind of terrible but I expect big things for this March. More on that as things develop. For now, enjoy the ocean’s sloppy joe’s and look for some actual decent days early next week possibly.

Big swell and massive surf on the way to Rincon, Puerto Rico.

All I can think about is riding it! The outside buoys just recorded 11ft at 16 seconds. This swell event is confirmed, and it is confirmed big. The big stuff should start pumping tomorrow evening and max out overnight. Wednesday will still be pretty big probably seeing 2-4ft overhead surf with heavy conditions. The rest of the week should see the leftovers in the not so huge range with favorable winds. The initial pulse of this swell event will be big. If your automated tools are saying 6ft and you’re thinking, “oh, that’s head high” you are dead wrong! 6-7ft at 16 seconds makes a wave most people call double overhead. Clean-up sets could be even bigger. The period is pretty much the power of the waves. It’s why 7 second period waves aren’t really waves at all here. 16 seconds and higher is fat and heavy and will throw hard. Additionally, the face height can seem almost double the measurable swell height. Know your limits and assess the risks appropriately.

Tropical Storm Earl will make surf for Puerto Rico.

Looks like the persistent disturbance has finally got itself organized into a Tropical Storm. The current track is a little closer to Puerto Rico than originally hoped for, but this won’t change things too much. Earl will fight some shear in the next day or two but after that, he should have favorable conditions. So expect an initial pulse to fill in tomorrow from the movement of the storm. By Wednesday we could see groundswell fill in. The Isabela area should already start to see some waves showing up, but the offshore winds won’t show up until Sunday. Have fun out there and stay safe!

First shot at tropical surf for the 2022 hurricane season.

After a very long, flat wait we have something on the long range models to watch closely. The formation of a tropical system directly in our swell window has been a consistent feature of many model runs. The exact timing is quite uncertain but Saturday and Sunday keep getting pegged as possible swell arrival days. The image above is a wind forecast image rendered for next Saturday. Thursday and Friday of the coming week will probably be good at East Coast and North Coast Spots for the initial arrival regardless of development due to the location of the disturbance. So we might have some swell for a few days, that’s the good news. The bad news – an already overcrowded, no off-season, Rincon will have waves on a holiday weekend. Crowds are going to be terrible at the main breaks. Foam board carnage is forecast to increase drastically as Costco boards fly off the shelves. Those with the right ace up their sleeve and the patience to go for a long walk will be able to find uncrowded surf when the wind goes south and NW swell fills in. That’s the other good news. Also a note to all visitors – RESPECT THE LOCALS AND CONTROL YOUR BOARDS!