It’s not looking good – no surf for Rincon.

The forecast is simple – we will stay flat for the next 10 days. But I guess I owe it to everyone to at least explain why. Looking at the weather chart above, if all the of the H’s were L’s and all the L’s were H’s we would have the biggest and best swell of all time. Unfortunately, that’s the opposite of what we have now. All of the fetch over the Atlantic pushes waves away from Rincon, not towards it. Wind around a high pressure system spins clockwise and wind around low pressure systems spins counterclockwise. There is a weak front trying to push off the states that might make a waist high background swell at some point, but that is about it.

Where can you find waves?

Spain and Portugal will be on fire next week. Can’t go over there? If you’re spring break is starting to look broken, don’t worry. The north coast of the island should have a decent supply of wind swell the remainder of the month. Mornings can offer at least a semi-clean wave and there is enough coastline to avoid extreme crowds if you’re willing to surf a sloppier wave. Easterly wind swell limits your options though and you will need to find a spot that is very exposed to have any size in the surf.

December is looking like a skunk month.

I have been procrastinating on writing this forecast mainly because i do not like it. All of the long range models are putting the current and future cold-fronts on a path that avoids our swell window to a large degree only to amplify them in the far Northern Atlantic and dump endless swell at Europe. This has been a pattern very common to the last couple of seasons so I’m inclined to believe that the forecasts are going to come true.

No waves in December? Really?

We should still see some waist to chest high days here and there, but for the most part no big swells are showing up on the models. I think a realistic hope is that some of the higher latitude storms get so big and strong that we get some long period NE swell which could make for some really fun days. Just make sure you don’t surf a crowded spot on those good days because long period NE swells tend to have a lot of lulls and long waits in between sets.

Short term forecast:

We stay small for the next 10 days. The conditions will be perfect for beginners, non-picky/high-stoke longboarders, and surf lessons. For everyone else, go fishing or diving! There has been so many schools of various fish running right now. Get some!

Everybody’s Surfing For The Weekend!

The models have been consistently putting a fun little chest high swell on Rincon’s beaches for the weekend. Until then it will be quite small to completely flat. Some days will have a good surf lesson wave early in the morning so if you’ve been wanting to learn to surf this will be a good week. I’ll update as necessary but count the work week out for any considerable surf.

What happened to the surf in Rincon?

We’re looking at a one week flatspell starting from Today. One week is the minimum I’m seeing right now. But all hope is not lost. At the end of next week we might see a coldfront swell from a higher lattitude storm. However, if the track of the front doesn’t cooperate we could be in flatsville for a while. I don’t like this outlook. I hope it changes. As of right now however, this is what the weather models are saying. I don’t like it any more than you do. I’m sorry.

Notice there isn’t much going on west of Henri? No real surf.

Tropical Storm Henri has almost no windfield on his west side which means we don’t have a north fetch or even a NE fetch. That means no real surf. We might see some background swell, but there isn’t even any real gradient or any weather whatsoever on his west side that could point a decent swell at us. It’s a grim forecast, but I think after the next day or so of smaller knee high leftovers we’ll be flat for a while.

What about the remnants of Grace?

Grace, much like Fred, was doomed from her beginning. PR has a force field of shear around it which is a result of the extreme heat from a record El Niño in the Pacific. Grace’s remaining fragments will pass our island this weekend and will do almost nothing. We might have a slight bump up on the north side of the island for surf, but Rincon will stay knee high at best. On the off chance we actually get more than that – surf it! Even it’s waist high – surf it! Have fun in the ocean. It’s too hot, and we’re going to be flat for a bit again. Surf whatever you can.

Flatspell continues and will continue.

No significant swell generating systems for our foreseeable future. HOWEVER, the summer game plan of looking to the southeast for waves will still pay off. The dissipated tropical waves will continue to pass the island. Normally this would mean waves for the north coast of the island as well as the southeast, but the shear is just too high to allow enough strength in the waves to get a good pressure gradient swell for the north coast. The southeast will be the only option. Rincon will stay flat for what feels like forever. Some fun surf lesson waves might show up for families taking a last minute trip before school starts up at some point so I’ll still be watching the weather. Or you could always go fishing.

Rincon Will Stay Flat.

Rincon has no hope for surf for at least another week. The closest chance Rincon has to getting some waves is a small little kid or surf lesson wave mid-week. The real action will be on the north side of the island. The wind will be light in the morning and should have some glassy conditions for the background NE swell that should be filling in up there for the majority of the week. Some fun chest high waves should be on offer. The weather will stay ridiculously hot so go get in the water somewhere.

The Island has 100’s of breaks to surf that aren’t in Rincon.

Just because Rincon is going to be flat doesn’t mean that the entire island will be in the same boat. Puerto Rico is an amazing island with each corner offering it’s unique beauty and potential for surf. The southeast corner of the island has a bunch of decent spots that should be working over the next couple of days. Take a vacation from the usual and go exploring, you’re bound to have a good time one way or another.

Windy wind chop with an extra side of wind.

The next several days will be dominated by non-stop ENE winds and tiny wrap-around wind chop for Rincon. I imagine the north side of the island will be a huge terrible mess over the next few days probably seeing 2-4ft overhead size with extreme blown-out conditions. The right morning might have some just regular chop to semi-chop at times, but by the afternoon it will be VAS conditions.

Now back to Rincon. We will have perfect surf lesson conditions for almost all of January. My January outlook is taking a terrible turn for the worse. We have one shot at some “good” days in Rincon during the month of January. That opportunity will come right smack dab in the middle of the month with the opportunity of getting some long period NE swell. Otherwise wind-fest will continue and all storms will pull off the states only to push massive swells at Europe. They will get nonstop surf over there. Every single storm is going to blow up and push all of it’s energy right at Europe. Rincon will only have the hope of NE backlash. I hope February has more opportunities for swell. I remember when we used to get at least one swell event a week this time of your (sometimes two). I miss those days. Looks like we’re down to one swell event per month (sometimes two).

This is what a weather forecast chart looks like when the surf is going to stay small to flat

A phantom background swell might show up for a few hours tomorrow (Friday) at some point and maybe again on Saturday. Besides that, Rincon is looking to stay flat until the end of the month. December is set to rage! The models are throwing non-stop storm action and some of them are bound to be swell makers. Granted, the majority will push up and away from our island and throw swell at Europe, but not all of them. Have fun, don’t lose your mind. I hope we get the phantom pulses. I need to surf! If all else fails, the North side of the island should continue to have some bumpy chest to head high waves for the next week or so. The mornings could clean up a bit, just don’t expect oil-slick glass.

I know I sound like a broken record player: No fronts in our swell window, More NE background swell.

I want another dip in the jetstream to push another front off Hatteras into our swell window. I really do. It’s just not going to happen soon. We are left with small to flat conditions in the long-run through the end of the month. We will continue to get background NE pulses here and there, but nothing major.

Right now we have a super fun long period NE swell and it will be fun for one day only. Expect dropping size by tomorrow and we’ll fade back to surf lesson, longboard, and little kid waves by mid-week.

Now for the good news! The models are going crazy at the end of the month with big storms pulling off the states into our swell window. The beginning of December will probably rage! I think we’re going to have a great December. I am going out of town in early December so there will absolutely 100% certainty that a big swell will show up while I am gone. You’re welcome.