December is looking like a skunk month.

I have been procrastinating on writing this forecast mainly because i do not like it. All of the long range models are putting the current and future cold-fronts on a path that avoids our swell window to a large degree only to amplify them in the far Northern Atlantic and dump endless swell at Europe. This has been a pattern very common to the last couple of seasons so I’m inclined to believe that the forecasts are going to come true.

No waves in December? Really?

We should still see some waist to chest high days here and there, but for the most part no big swells are showing up on the models. I think a realistic hope is that some of the higher latitude storms get so big and strong that we get some long period NE swell which could make for some really fun days. Just make sure you don’t surf a crowded spot on those good days because long period NE swells tend to have a lot of lulls and long waits in between sets.

Short term forecast:

We stay small for the next 10 days. The conditions will be perfect for beginners, non-picky/high-stoke longboarders, and surf lessons. For everyone else, go fishing or diving! There has been so many schools of various fish running right now. Get some!

Notice there isn’t much going on west of Henri? No real surf.

Tropical Storm Henri has almost no windfield on his west side which means we don’t have a north fetch or even a NE fetch. That means no real surf. We might see some background swell, but there isn’t even any real gradient or any weather whatsoever on his west side that could point a decent swell at us. It’s a grim forecast, but I think after the next day or so of smaller knee high leftovers we’ll be flat for a while.

What about the remnants of Grace?

Grace, much like Fred, was doomed from her beginning. PR has a force field of shear around it which is a result of the extreme heat from a record El Niño in the Pacific. Grace’s remaining fragments will pass our island this weekend and will do almost nothing. We might have a slight bump up on the north side of the island for surf, but Rincon will stay knee high at best. On the off chance we actually get more than that – surf it! Even it’s waist high – surf it! Have fun in the ocean. It’s too hot, and we’re going to be flat for a bit again. Surf whatever you can.