Big swell and massive surf on the way to Rincon, Puerto Rico.

All I can think about is riding it! The outside buoys just recorded 11ft at 16 seconds. This swell event is confirmed, and it is confirmed big. The big stuff should start pumping tomorrow evening and max out overnight. Wednesday will still be pretty big probably seeing 2-4ft overhead surf with heavy conditions. The rest of the week should see the leftovers in the not so huge range with favorable winds. The initial pulse of this swell event will be big. If your automated tools are saying 6ft and you’re thinking, “oh, that’s head high” you are dead wrong! 6-7ft at 16 seconds makes a wave most people call double overhead. Clean-up sets could be even bigger. The period is pretty much the power of the waves. It’s why 7 second period waves aren’t really waves at all here. 16 seconds and higher is fat and heavy and will throw hard. Additionally, the face height can seem almost double the measurable swell height. Know your limits and assess the risks appropriately.

Tropical Storm Earl will make surf for Puerto Rico.

Looks like the persistent disturbance has finally got itself organized into a Tropical Storm. The current track is a little closer to Puerto Rico than originally hoped for, but this won’t change things too much. Earl will fight some shear in the next day or two but after that, he should have favorable conditions. So expect an initial pulse to fill in tomorrow from the movement of the storm. By Wednesday we could see groundswell fill in. The Isabela area should already start to see some waves showing up, but the offshore winds won’t show up until Sunday. Have fun out there and stay safe!

First shot at tropical surf for the 2022 hurricane season.

After a very long, flat wait we have something on the long range models to watch closely. The formation of a tropical system directly in our swell window has been a consistent feature of many model runs. The exact timing is quite uncertain but Saturday and Sunday keep getting pegged as possible swell arrival days. The image above is a wind forecast image rendered for next Saturday. Thursday and Friday of the coming week will probably be good at East Coast and North Coast Spots for the initial arrival regardless of development due to the location of the disturbance. So we might have some swell for a few days, that’s the good news. The bad news – an already overcrowded, no off-season, Rincon will have waves on a holiday weekend. Crowds are going to be terrible at the main breaks. Foam board carnage is forecast to increase drastically as Costco boards fly off the shelves. Those with the right ace up their sleeve and the patience to go for a long walk will be able to find uncrowded surf when the wind goes south and NW swell fills in. That’s the other good news. Also a note to all visitors – RESPECT THE LOCALS AND CONTROL YOUR BOARDS!

Tropical Depression Two Might Give Rincon Surf!

Don’t everyone look at once, but we have a tropical depression out in the Atlantic. I said don’t everyone look at once! We don’t want to scare it away. Now I know she ain’t much to look at right now, but there’s a closed circulation in there somewhere. If the current forecast sticks, we should see TD Two form into a Tropical Storm tomorrow. If the west side of the storm can get it’s act together we have a shot at some NW swell late in the forecast period. The current path moves the storm away from us and the steering currents responsible for that should at least put some Easterly swell on the beaches up in Isabela. The southerly surface winds form the storm should keep it glassy up there and at all North facing beaches. I don’t think we’ll have much in Rincon this weekend but a little bump in the knee high range will probably stick around. Early next week into mid-week is when we get a better shot at decent surf depending on what happens over the weekend. I’m keeping close tabs on this one. I want some tropical swell!

Hurricane Joaquin Strengthens – More surf on the way!

Hurricane Joaquin could strengthen to a category 3 right in our prime swell window over the weekend! But that’s not all – we have a coldfront pulling off the states and another tropical blob trying to form almost due north of PR. Basically we’re looking at multiple swells from multiple angles with south winds for the next 5 days and possibly beyond that. All of the north facing beaches in Puerto Rico should be on fire! The north side of the island should be barrel fest. We’ll start off with some of Joaquin’s NW swell tomorrow in the head high plus range that should last until the Coldfront pulls off and sends a NE swell from way out in the Atlantic for early next week.

Stay hydrated! The heat is going to be intense!

The temperatures are extremely hot right now in PR. Whenever the winds are dead or from the south we stay hot, humid, and stagnant. Drink plenty of water and don’t die of dehydration. Seriously, it’s going to be hot (it already has been).

Tropical Storm Joaquin forms right in our swell window!

Right now he’s serving to keep the winds dead as a longer period NE swell fills in from a cold-front, but he could become so much more than that. The wind shear is supposed to lighten up tomorrow which would give Joaquin a chance to strengthen and get more organized. If he does that and gets a bigger/symmetrical windfield we could be looking at a nice setup for a week of perfect waves. Right now there is plenty of swell in the water to keep us surfing here in Rincon for another 2-3 days. If Tropical Storm Joaquin does get his act together during that time, his swell will blend right in and keep the surf going off! This is all best case scenario, but I’m so stoked right now I can’t help but give everyone a heads up.