Weekend Update: Smaller surf, but plenty of it!

The wind will blow pretty hard between now and Friday, but by the weekend we should see dead winds here in Rincon and possibly some south winds on Sunday and Monday. The high pressure is taking center stage as the wave generating system in the Atlantic which means that we’ll see a bit of a shorter period that originally anticipated. Also, a little more NE angle will be on the swell which means the size and strength of the waves to come goes down a notch. We should still see some fun waist to chest high surf though on most days into next week.

Here’s how I see the surf forecast playing out:

Friday: Waist to Chest High windy leftovers.
Saturday: Chest to Head High and glassy everywhere.
Sunday: Chest to Head High and glassy everywhere with the north facing beaches remaining glassy all day.
Monday: Waist to Chest High with south winds again.
Tuesday: Knee to Waist High with pretty much dead winds perfect for surf lessons.
Wednesday: Waist high building to chest and head high by the evening with light wind.
Thursday: Waist to Chest High with light east wind.

What A beautiful storm! More swell for surfing Puerto Rico.

Not only is that low setup right in our swell window, it actually dipped hard south – like straight down as it amplified and high pressure is building in behind it. This will keep a fetch going across a lot of the Atlantic and the swell should continue to rage. And in the long range we have a really strong late season winter storm crossing the states as we speak. We’re set to have surf for quite a few days!

Here’s how I see it playing it out:

Tuesday: Double Overhead and Perfection fading to 2-3ft overhead by the evening.
Wednesday: 2-3ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with some bigger sets still in the water.
Thursday: 2-3ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with heavy winds later in the day.
Friday: 2-3ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with some double overhead sets.
Saturday: 2ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with smaller surf later in the day.
Sunday: Head high and glassy.
Monday: Chest high and glassy.

I like it when things change for the better – more surf on the way!

We have a nice setup to keep some waist high surf on our beaches for the next few days and through the weekend. Some days with the right tide will still see some chest high sets. Early next week we could possibly see another big swell. This season has been going great so far! I hope it keeps up.

Here’s how I see things playing out for surfing Rincon:

Wednesday – Chest high and glassy all morning everywhere in Rincon and fading through the day.
Thursday – Waist to Chest high and mushy at the most exposed breaks.
Friday – Waist high and glassy at the most exposed breaks.
Saturday – Waist to Chest high and glassy in the morning at just about every Rincon spot.
Sunday – Chest to Head high and glassy in the morning at the more exposed breaks.
Monday – Double overhead and powerful with clean conditions at protected spots.
Tuesday – Head high to a couple feet overhead and glassy fading fast through the day.

Some High Pressure and a weak front = small waves for Rincon.

This past swell turned out to be a lot of fun! In the coming week we look to stay small to flat for most of the time. A steady flow of ENE wind swell will be on tap the entire time, so the North side of the island should be a lot of fun with light winds in the mornings. Because Rincon doesn’t really pick up ENE wind swell that well, we will only see small, mushy longboard waves and surf lesson waves. A lot of action seems to be going on across the states weather-wise so I wouldn’t be surprised if we get another decent swell after this next flat spell.

Just a little while longer and the flatness will be no more.

By tomorrow morning we should start to see the new swell fill in. The winds are forecast to be light so I’m thinking that just about every surf spot in Rincon should be breaking perfectly in the morning. By the afternoon we will experience a light onshore flow on both sides of Rincon for most of the days this week. The lower latitude spring time Low Pressure System combined with a powerful High Pressure behind will dump fun waves at us from mid-week through the weekend. I’m stoked! Here’s how i see it playing out.

Wednesday: Waist to Chest High glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning with occasionally bigger sets.
Thursday: Chest to Head High glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning with some bigger sets.
Friday: 2-3ft Overhead glassy at all Rincon Breaks in the morning with dead winds most of the day.
Saturday: Chest to Head High glass in the morning with waist to chest high afternoon waves on the west side of Rincon once the winds pick up.
Sunday: Waist to Chest High leftovers at the more exposed breaks.
Monday: Waist High leftovers at the most exposed breaks.
Tuesday: Possible Building swell starting off Waist High and Ending Head High and bumpy.

Surf is on the way! Get ready.

Well it seems that that our collective mind willing worked to get the storm out over the ocean sooner and stronger than previously forecast. Unfortunately I guess we all forgot to add a lower latitude push to our telepathic requests. The storm has in fact pushed out to sea and intensified, however it’s way up North by Nova Scotia. This means that the swell will need more time to get here. Arrival is still set for Monday. The period should be decent as we have hard north winds in our swell window with a decent fetch. The swinging of the trough can still put some NNW angle on it as well. Next week is going to rage! Unfortunately so will the winds so we might have some nastiness mid week.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

Friday: Pretty much flat, but maybe a knee high crumbler at the most exposed breaks.
Saturday: Some knee high cumblers for day 1 of the contest with super glassy conditions and no wind.
Sunday: Some waist high peelers for day 2 of the contest with glassy conditions and light wind. Hopefully we’ll see some chest high sets on occasion.
Monday: Swell shows up with a decent period and should be a couple feet overhead on sets and powerful early morning. By the end of the day we should see double overhead surf. The wind will pick up slightly but should be just the right amount of offshore for west facing spots to go off all day.
Tuesday: Swell sticks around with a bit more wind. The surf should stay in the 2-3ft overhead range through the day.
Wednesday: Massive windy swell in the double overhead range working only at super protected spots.
Thursday: Even more massive double to triple overhead gnarly wind swell with tucked away nooks and crannies working fairly well (i hope).

This is the storm that could be making some waves next week!

So far Monday and Tuesday seem to be when the models are calling for some swell to show up from the storm above. Bear in mind that we are still several days out and the a lot of things have to happen for this to pan out. If the storm strengthens a bit and pulls off the states sooner, we’ll see some swell sooner. This is what everyone who is doing the contest this weekend and who is involved in throwing the contest is hoping for. If enough people stare at this storm on sat images and mind-will it to strengthen and dip out into the Atlantic early, it just might happen. Seasonally, however, it’s more likely to come in a little later than expected. Plus the models are giving the storm a bit of a higher latitude track which tends to delay swell arrival on account of the swell being generated further away from our island. The period is looking a bit longer with this scenario though. Only time will tell.

Here’s what is currently forecast to happen:

Wednesday – Leftover wind swell in the waist high range with some bigger sets and clean conditions in the morning.
Thursday – Mushy background swell in the knee to waist high range perfect for surf lessons.
Friday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Saturday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Sunday – Lake flat conditions most of the day with some knee high wind chop by the evening.
Monday – Chest to head high and glassy conditions in the morning. Swell will build to a few feet overhead by the end of the day with strong winds as the swell fills in.
Tuesday – 2ft Overhead with some double overhead sets and windy in the afternoon. Find wind blocked spots and surf to your hearts content. The swell period should be decent and provide plenty of power.

Swell in the short term, small in the long term.

It looks like plenty of swell has finally been built up in the Atlantic to keep Rincon happy with surf from Sunday through Tuesday. Expect surf to build into waist to chest high on Sunday with light winds and glassy conditions for the first half of the day. On Monday the swell should be decent in the head high range with clean conditions in the first half of the day. Tuesday will stay chest to head high in the morning with fading conditions as the days go on. Beyond that we will have small surf in Rincon until the next week. Notice all the high pressure over the states in the image above? That’s what is going to dominate most of the week and next weekend and why this next swell probably won’t work after Tuesday here in Rincon. The north side of the island should have some decent sized wind swell with semi-sloppy conditions every day of the week. It definitely won’t be flat up there, but the form will probably not be the best. Should the winds relax one night, the morning could be fun!

Possible big swell in the extended forecast.

Granted, 10 days out in the forecast period carries a ridiculous level of uncertainty. However, after a bit of a flatspell from mid-week through the weekend, it would make sense that something major would be on the horizon that far out. A few of the prediction models are starting to anticipate a lower latitude cold front right in our swell window for a decent NW swell. This scenario is what I will be watching for closely as the week goes on.

Another round of swell for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

It looks like the super trough is going to pull out into the Atlantic far enough and have a fairly strong high pressure build in behind it. This means we should see some bigger surf this weekend into early next week, but the form might not be perfection. There might be a lot of wind out there in the ocean. Also, as a general rule of thumb, high pressure swell tends to be bumpy and wobbly. Tucked away spots that are protected from the wind should groom it up nicely though.

Here’s how I see the next few days playing out:

Thursday: Small to flat conditions perfect for surf lessons.
Friday: Small to flat conditions possibly too small for even surf lessons.
Saturday: Head high with sets in the 2-3ft overhead range and rough seas and heavy wind.
Sunday: Head high with sets in the 2-3ft overhead range with calmer conditions and lighter wind.
Monday: Probably the best form and longer period swell with offshores at west facing beaches. The surf should still be a couple of feet overhead on sets. There might be a bit of wait between bigger sets as well.
Tuesday: Chest to head high cleaner leftovers with a choppy afternoon.
Wednesday: Knee to waist high surf lessons wave at most exposed breaks.

Weaker storm, higher latitude, smaller surf for Rincon.

We have had an incredible run of swell for the past two and a half weeks. This coming week will quiet down a bit and be a more traditional weak cold front swell with shorter period and more NNE angle than what we’ve gotten used to over the past few weeks. We should stay chest to head high for most of the new week with bigger sets on Tuesday and Wednesday. The mornings should be glassy, but the afternoons will probably be super windy. The position of the storm still lends itself to about two days of setup and swell generation time before the surf will pick up again so I’m thinking Monday might start off small. If the storm moves out quicker and gets it’s northerly fetch going earlier, Monday will start off bigger. Have fun!