Smaller surf to persist in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We have enough going on in the ocean above us to keep us from going completely flat, but don’t expect to much any time soon. This late in the season, even when a low pulls off the states into our swell window it generally doesn’t deepen enough to make anything huge. Any anomalous strong storms will most likely continue to be European swell events. That’s the new norm in North Atlantic weather patterns lately. The long period kick back swell from those storms can be iffy (much like the forecast long period swell that never showed up last week). Live buoy data will be important over the next few weeks. As stated before, the weather setup we currently have should be able to send some surf our way, but it will be fickle. NE background swell will come and go with the tides and NW wind swell will come and go as well. I’m expecting a week to ten days of waist high waves with a notch up or down at random moments. Some days might actually go completely flat. I’m working on improving the site so that updates can be done more frequently.

Smaller Surf in the forecast for Surfing Puerto Rico.

This late in the season it’s no surprise to see a decline in lower latitude winter storms. Unfortunately it would appear that they have disappeared all together and the weather has resumed it’s “up and over” pattern for low pressure with the Bermuda High setting up strong and early this year. This disturbs me – the water is already 81.5F down here and 82 is the minimum to support tropical cyclone formation. More about that in a separate post though. For now we will focus on the two weather systems that should generate some decent smaller surf. The first pulse should arrive from a combination of high pressure wind swell and low pressure NW wind swell. In both instances you notice that it’s all wind swell. Sorry but 10 seconds is the most we’re getting out of this first pulse. The good news is that the NW angle hits Rincon very well and 2ft at 10s from the NW makes for some fun chest high surf at several spots. I’m anticipating this weekend to stay in the waist to chest high range in Rincon. Round two should start to fill in early next week. This second pulse will also be a combo swell with NW wind swell followed by long period NE swell if the storm pulls out as currently forecast. We should see the really long period swell hit most of Puerto Rico on Tuesday through Thursday if all goes according to plan. If we really do see some 2.5ft at 18 seconds swell, several spots should be around head high and bigger on sets here in Rincon.

Major Swell Event for Surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Get ready folks, the waves are going to get big again. The weather has been pretty active and we’re finally seeing some lower latitude storms pull off the states. The current system gave a decent dip/whip down and is currently amplifying just enough to give us a decent swell. Get ready for some more Tres Palmas action. This swell won’t be as massive as the swell of the season, but don’t underestimate it either. The period will be longest on Thursday and Friday as well as the swell height. Most people have the most fun on days with only 2-4ft of groundswell. So if you’re thinking 8ft at 15 seconds isn’t very big you’re going to be humbled pretty fast when you get to the beach. Use a good leash, inspect your equipment, and STAY SAFE! Tomorrow will probably stay around waist to chest high. Wednesday will start off around head high and build throughout the day into the double overhead range. Thursday will be double overhead and bigger. Friday will be close to double overhead. Saturday is looking more like a head high to a couple of feet overhead day and Sunday the waist to chest high leftovers. I really don’t see why we won’t have another swell event similar to this one next week around the same time as well. Another storm is sweeping across the states currently.

More Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

This looks like a decent enough cold-front to me! There are some key differences between this winter storm and last week’s super swell, but the current storm system should have plenty of power, fetch, and positioning to to throw a nice NW swell our way. The motion of this storm isn’t going to have the same dip down and push the entire North Atlantic at us. It’s going to move north and climb latitudes which means that the pulse will probably not last as long as the super swell. I still expect 3-4 days of perfect surf from the current weather system. We could see the first pulse of swell as early as tomorrow evening and it should last into Saturday morning. Depending on what the storm does at sea we might see some NE long-period kickback into the weekend and early next week. It’s not currently forecast to do that, but from what I’m seeing in the forecast track of the winter storm it might be a possibility. Tomorrow will probably start off small in the waist high range and build into head high by evening. Thursday could see some sets into the double overhead range with most of the surf averaging a couple feet overhead at most spots. Friday should be fading but still have chest to head conditions with a little bigger set thrown in at random. Saturday will start off chest high as well and slowly fade out as the day goes on. I’ll keep checking on the progress of this storm and update accordingly. But basically, get ready to surf!

More surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We won’t see any more massive conditions for a while, but at least we should continue to have decent waves over the next few days. The wind is forecast to blow out of the south over the next few days too which should keep the north side of Rincon glassy. This should also help keep crowds controlled a bit. The west facing beaches will still probably have a clean morning session on offer which would really be helpful for spreading out the crowds. Expect waist to chest high conditions with head high sets to persist through the middle of next week. Notice how the spectral wave analysis looks like it’s drunk? There’s a lot of commotion in the ocean and it’s going to make it hard to peg exactly how the waves will be breaking, but I believe it’s safe to say that we’ll have a little bit of everything. This is good because with a variety of rights and lefts and nothing but open coastline, there’s bound to be something for everyone.

Super Swell Confirmed – Get Ready Rincon!

Would you just look at that! I mean, just look at it! It broke the chart! This swell is going to be massive. Saturday looks like the last day for regular humans to surf the normal breaks. After that it will be the super tucked away nooks and crannies for the most of us. For the big wave chargers, the biggest surf we’ve had all year will be readily available. This thing is really happening. It’s amazing to watch it on sat images. It’s what I’ve mind-willed so many times, except this time it’s actually doing it. If the center of the storm drops in latitude, the push will amplify things even more and make this a solid week-long event. The wind is currently forecast to be a bit intense, but if the high pressure fights back a little bit we might be ok here in Rincon. This will be due to the forced easterly angle on the local winds (if that happens).

SAFETY WARNING!

The massive swell event is going to create some very dangerous conditions in the ocean. There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Massive Swell Event Begins Formation get ready to surf Rincon!

I doubted this thing for a while, but the models have been dead set on it’s formation long before the weather elements to make this event really existed prominently. Today is the first physical confirmation that the elements will actually behave as forecast. Notice the arrows around the low pressures in the NE United States? See how it more resembles an NFL down the middle running play? What your seeing forecast is something that just about every surfer has ever talked about happening, “what if, like, all the low pressures got together and formed one giant storm.” Historically, this does not happen very often in the manner that we are about to see. Appreciate it folks, we’re going to see something awesome happen here. The high pressure is already moving out more east and leaving the pocket open for the first batch of low pressure to hit the ocean. All the other nearby lows appear to be moving toward that pocket. Within a couple of days we should see for certain if we end up with the super-storm or not. As I watch the latest satellite loops I almost can’t believe my eyes – it’s actually happening. If everything stays on track we should see very large waves for the entire work week next week. Monday and Tuesday could be the biggest days of the season with sets well over triple overhead. Every tucked away nook and cranny should be surfable so pick your favorite “it only breaks when it’s huge” spot and have fun. If you are a big wave surfer, get ready for some of the biggest Tres Palmas we’ve seen in a while.

Short Term Forecast

We should continue to see perfect overhead surf with double overhead sets on Friday and Saturday with some head high to 2ft overhead sets on Sunday. The wind is forecast to calm down a bit, but with the super storm forming I can’t imagine the high pressure won’t have something to do with that as well so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit more wind from the high pressure than anticipated. The latest forecast change puts some south wind in the mix which is common when a big storm and NW swell is being made. The north side of Rincon might be the place to be at times.

SAFETY WARNING!!!!!

That’s five exclamation marks. The massive swell event is going to create some very dangerous conditions in the ocean. There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

I want to believe…

But I don’t. This looks more like another NE long period swell setup, not a NW swell setup. However, if the crazy dip in the jetstream from that west coast storm can sweep across the US and dip out low in the Atlantic, we’ll see a massive swell actualize. All of the models still consistently peg a big storm in the North Atlantic right in our swell window over the weekend so hopefully I’m wrong and we get another swell of the decade setup. If I’m right about the way I see it, we’ll see another long period NE swell fill-in by middle of next week. If I’m wrong, we’ll see a NNW long period swell fill in by early next week followed by a long period NE swell from the back end of the storm to last the rest of the week. All in all, looks like we win either way.

Short Term – Perfect Surf in Rincon.

The buoys have been pinging with long period swell all across the Atlantic. From this evening through the weekend we should see perfect overhead waves with double overhead sets on the right tide when the swell maxes out on Friday. Bear in mind that the weather system that created this swell is very far away. I’m anticipating lulls. If everyone is crowding one break, it could get hectic. The wind is forecast to finally calm down and will hopefully offer clean morning sessions for the north facing beaches here in Rincon. With plenty of swell in the ocean and calm winds, several spots should be working all over Puerto Rico. No need to crowd one spot.

Safety Warning!

There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Another round of long period swell to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

That massive storm in the middle of the Atlantic is impressive! It appears that a very strong long period swell will be spread across the entire North Atlantic by the end of the week. After an extremely windy, rainy, and weak wind-swell laden February, March is forecast to start off with a bang! Though Thursday, March 1st is the official arrival date of the new swell, some of the more reliable models are calling for the front-runners to hit by Wednesday evening. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning will mostly be just small scale wind-waves so I imagine everyone will be eagerly awaiting the next swell. Getting in on the early pulse without a crowd seems unlikely. However, the winds “might” calm down a bit and open up more opportunities for other Rincon spots during the coming swell event. This is going to be the key to crowd control in Rincon. All of February was pretty much unsurfable for the north facing beaches of Rincon. If that side can get clean again in the mornings, a lot more spots will be available and help to mitigate the heavy crowds. This has been a very crowded season so far and the weather pattern hasn’t been helping matters. Expect Thursday and Friday to have overhead surf with powerful long lines. The swell is coming from very far away so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a decent amount of time in between sets. Patience and timing will be key.

Another swell on the horizon.

The long range models are putting a major storm right off the coast of the US towards the end of the forecast period with a possible long-period NW swell to follow. Though I really want to see this materialize, I am hesitant to jump on board with this scenario. High pressure has taken center stage so much lately. Unless the blocking high can be forced out of the way for a small amount of time, the storm will most likely have to go up and over like every other storm. There would still be the possibility for another open ocean NE long-period swell from the same weather system – that would be the scenario most likely to happen. In this case, the next pulse would show up about a week from now which would be consistent with the current pattern. The argument for the NW swell panning out is that the current and past weather pattern is somewhat uncharacteristic for this time of year and the earth might try to play catch-up with a late season dip and shift in the jetstream. We should have a better idea of what is going to happen later in the week.

Heavy winds and more wind swell to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

What’s that? Oooooooh you wanted waves, NOT wind. Sorry. Just got wind. I’ve put writing this forecast off for so long because i was waiting for a change in the weather. The change hasn’t happened. High pressure continues to dominate and amplify over the Northern Atlantic. None of the winter storms or cold fronts dip out into our swell window. It’s been a long stretch of this pattern so hopefully it will change soon. The wind however is not currently forecast to relent, not even for a day. The light at the end of the tunnel comes about a week from now when hopefully some longer period NE swell might show up from way up North in the Atlantic. It will have to be quite the powerful swell to push through the still 20-30mph ENE winds that just won’t stop. In the meantime, the short period wind swell will be all we have for the next 7-10 days. At least there has been some small windows at some of the more exposed breaks for a fun session to be had. If you can catch a tiny break in the wind with the tide low enough, the small waves can be fun. If you’re a beginner or wanting to learn how to surf, Rincon will be your dream come true for the next week and a half. The tucked away spots continue to have a small peeler perfect for beginners and lessons.