PR getting windy, but no surf for Rincon yet.

Potential Tropical Depression Nine will go down in history as the most significant tropical storm that was never an actual tropical storm. It’s still technically an open tropical wave with a broad circulation. It is creating more weather than some smaller Category 1 Hurricanes that have existed so it being a “Potential” depression is just a technical designation. This this is still an impressive weather system with some very real dangerous weather. Unfortunately, the new path means that we get all the bad weather and none of the waves. I am bummed about this. At least we have the sand monster from Africa to thank for throwing heaps of dry/sandy air all over this thing and keeping it from becoming another Maria. Honestly, without the sands all around it, we would have been in a very bad spot. At any given moment the weather system could finally develop a closed center and be a named storm officially so this isn’t over yet – not by a long shot. A stronger storm would be pulled on a more northward track. Either way, get ready for a couple of days of nasty weather and maybe some waist to chest high surf for the weekend.

BE SAFE!

We’re already in the middle of a medical crisis so please be extra careful. A simple rainstorm knocked a few trees down in some places. I can only imagine what a major storm would do right now. Please be prepared and don’t take unnecessary risks.

The south side of the island.

Yes, south spots should be firing while the winds are still north but currents could be a bit intense. There isn’t much on the south side of the storm so dead winds might persist after the passing of the storm allowing for some clean up days with groundswell as well. The south has been working exceptionally well lately due to the now common occurrence of passing tropical waves just about every 2-3 days.

Possible Hurricane on the way.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is close to becoming a hurricane by later today. I think it will stay too far south of us to cause any major problems, but don’t let your guard down. I’ve been warning about an active season for a while now. And sure enough, as soon as the wind shear lightened up we had a storm. There’s a dust cloud that Gonzalo is currently outrunning. If it catches up to him he’ll be choked out. There is also currently considerable wind shear under Puerto Rico. Those are the two factors that could cripple Gonzalo. However if the dust cloud doesn’t catch up to him and if the wind shear lightens up in the Caribbean south of PR, then rapid intensification is on the table. This would change the forecast track as a strong storm tends to go a bit more Northward than a weaker storm. It would most likely still miss PR and be more of a Problem Jamaica, Cuba, or the DR/Hispanola. Hurricane Season 2020 lights up… now.

Summertime flatness and tropics showing early warning signs.

Summer pattern in full effect. Rincon to stay mostly flat with a little background swell for the next 3 to 5 days. It should be decent enough for small children and surf lessons at the most exposed breaks here in Rincon on the low to incoming tide. The winds have had a tendency to go onshore no matter what every day so mornings will probably be your best bet. If you’re really dying to surf, the southeast corner of the island should be having one of the most consistent summers for surf. See all those tropical waves on the way? They’re not expected to develop into anything. They don’t need to. Each one that passes should at least kick up some waist to chest high surf. Be careful out there though. People have been cooped up, everyone needs to surf, it’s super hot – spots that are already known for their crowds might be a bit extra intense.

Tropical Activity

The tropics are active. Though formation has been impeded greatly by drier air and heavy Saharan Sands, countless tropical waves have been pulling off Africa. I’ve been saying this over and over again. There is a very real possibility that we get hit by a storm this year. The steering currents are pushing every open wave right at us. The ocean is hot and only getting hotter. There is a steady flow of open waves off Africa. The wind shear is starting to relax already in many formation hot spots. If that dry desert air relents, we will see some storms form. It would be a good idea to be ready now for the storms to come.

Plenty to speculate on, not much to surf.

We look like we’re in a flatspell for a bit. Granted, many days will still feature a small child and toddler wave but I don’t think that’s what you want unless you are a small child or toddler. Tropical swell? Sure it could happen at any given time in theory. We have plenty to watch but I just don’t see it panning out right now. I will say that this would be a great time to make sure you’re ready for a hurricane NOW. Pretend that a hurricane is coming this weekend. Get ready. The amount of tropical waves pushing off Africa is insane! The sands and wind shear look to be keeping formation at bay, but that might not last all hurricane season. The second the wind shear drops off and the sand gives a clear patch we’ll see a storm.

What about Tropical Storm Fay?

She just doesn’t have the power. Her path is also inopportune for swell development. The early activity in the region shes currently it might be a forshadow of possible future swells though. An easterly push off the states in that area from a stronger weather system would mean rideable waves.