Small chance at small surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance! Yes, but don’t get too excited just yet. The good news is that a low is sitting in a favorable spot for swell generation right off the coast of Florida. The bad news is that it’s not very strong and not forecast to develop. However, tropical weather can be very unpredictable so it’s worth watching in satellite loops (which is what I will be doing in desperate anticipation for any sort of formation). A slight push out away from the states and a bit more development and we could see some small scale NW swell show up. Another surf possibility is to head to the southeast corner of the island for any one of the regular tropical waves that keep passing through the Caribbean. Some days have been really fun down there.

Active Weather in June – Small Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

As you can see in the weather map above, the Atlantic still has a lot of activity going on. As a result some small scale surf should persist for the next couple of days. What happens beyond that has a lot of uncertainty. Most weather systems are beating expectations as far as surf is concerned. Historically we don’t get much surf action in June and we’ve seen a decent run of swell a couple weekends in a row. Will the pattern continue? I sure hope so! Will we know for sure? Not a chance. Unfortunately I would put a 3 day max on any reliable forecast right now. Tomorrow we should see the peak of this current small pulse with hopefully some more waist to chest high surf at exposed breaks in the morning. I anticipate that the swell will fade through the day and be very small on Monday. Tuesday will most likely go back to flat.

Unreliable speculation beyond 3 days:

I will be watching that open low out in the middle of the North Atlantic carefully. Any development of tropical characteristics will change the surf forecast drastically. Is it expected to develop tropical characteristics? No. It’s not. But it also wasn’t forecast to linger on for as long as it has. Persistent blobs of low pressure are often a point of interest this time of year since there is plenty of heat in the ocean right now. We also have some tropical waves that will be passing from Africa through the Caribbean over the next week as well. Those will be worth watching as well.

Get ready for Hurricane Season 2020!

The ocean is hot, the earth is angry. The second the wind shear starts dropping we’re going to see a lot of storms form this season. Make sure you’re prepared! Things could get complicated dealing with a storm along with the exiting increase of earthquakes and the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Rincon to see more background surf and summer weather.

Nothing major on the swell models or the weather forecasts, but a steady flow of weak activity over the Atlantic Ocean will provide more tiny surf lessons waves throughout the week at the most exposed surf breaks. Your usual summertime spots will have something to play with. Don’t expect too much and you won’t be overly disappointed. We continue to see a steady flow of open tropical waves pull of Africa so the southeast corner of the island should be pretty fun for the beginning of July and most likely all of the summer. With the North Atlantic continuing to have activity, we should have some really fun surf lesson conditions later in the week and into the weekend. Hit us up on social media if you want surf lessons.

More Summer Weather – No Major Surf in Rincon

Granted, the earth is not completely quiet in regards to the current weather over the North Atlantic. However, there doesn’t seem to be enough going on to make any major surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico. This is common for June. The bright side is that there is at least more small scale surf lesson days on the horizon on the low tides and that some parts of the island that are super exposed will continue to see small surf. We’re not completely flat as a lake everywhere on the island – not just yet anyways.

Tropical Analysis for Surf

Currently, the only low wind shear areas don’t have hot enough water to see any significant formation in the near term forecast in the North Atlantic. We continue to see several open waves traverse the Atlantic and the Caribbean. In addition the ITCZ is lit up (common this time of year). However, sea surface temps still aren’t unusually high and where they are the highest wind shear is far to strong to allow for developement.

My take-home from a quick look at the current weather is that we won’t see any Tropical Cyclone formation for another week or so. However, any change in the wind shear situation would merit special attention. Because we have so many open waves this year, it is very likely that one will be able to grow into something more significant if the wind shear backs down in any hot zone of the ocean. The heat is very intense, humid, and overbearing right now here in Rincon. As summer progesses, I can see plenty of Fuel in the form of heat content to feed some of these potential tropical systems.