Cold Front Mania – Let the NW swell continue!

This week will be feature a little more wind than the past couple of weeks, but we should have plenty of NW and N swell for the coming work week. Next weekend is looking like the NNE to NE leftovers of the current weather systems, but with the amount of activity I’m seeing on sat images I wouldn’t be surprised to see another major swell event form. Tomorrow should be chest to head high and clean at the north facing beaches and hopefully some bigger sets. Tuesday may see a slight bump up to head high with some overhead sets with clean conditions in the morning and onshore everywhere winds by the afternoon. Wednesday should be head high to a couple feet overhead with light winds. Waist to chest high with light winds should be the theme for the remainder of the forecast period with a few bigger pulses at the right time and tide. So far this month has provided a lot of waves. I like the lower latitude fronts and NW swell. It hits Rincon really well and the NW angle is a big part of why this past week was so much better than most people expected.

Massive winter storm: major swell event for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

This storm is a beast! Look at all that wind field! It’s beautiful! I am so amped looking at the graphical representation of the winds this morning. Looking at the pressure chart is impressive too. This swell is going to crank for several days. We should see the first arrival on Wednesday afternoon or evening with some south winds on Wednesday and Thursday. This means that north facing beaches will be all time on these two days. This also means that there will be several spots working that normally get blown out right away. Your chances of surfing with a light crowd are very high if you know where to go. If you cram into the same exact peak as everyone else that’s on you. That being said, remember too that this is a major swell and we will see sets in the double overhead range and possibly bigger. If it’s out of your skill level don’t paddle out. If you see someone in trouble, help them if you can. Please be safe!

Early Weekend Outlook:

We should continue with head high surf through the weekend. The swell angle is supposed to remain out of the NW and even though the period drops a little, the NW angle hits Rincon and several other parts of Puerto Rico very well. I don’t anticipate it getting any smaller than waist to chest and just about every day should still have head high sets.

Lower cold front ready to make some surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico!

I told ya so! Though a day or so earlier than I forecast in the previous update, we have our lower latitude storm. This thing is looking good and it’s not alone. We could very well see another storm like this again within another week or so. For now we will focus on the current storm system. I like what I’m seeing so far from the current storm. We could see the initial pulse as early as Saturday and the bulk of it on Sunday and Monday. We could easily see some double overhead sets on Sunday/Monday especially since the swell is forecast to have a NNW angle. After that we might see a bit of a drop over early next week to waist to chest and smaller. By mid-week into late weekend should see a longer period round two of swell if the second storm can stay on track. In the far reaches of the forecast, another storm might pull off the states and follow a very similar path with perhaps a more northward guidance than the current system and keep us all surfing through the rest of the month. February always tends to be the best month of the season.

Plenty of weather to generate some surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico!

That gigantic winter storm in the North Atlantic screams long period swell in the making to me for the long range. We’ve had a continuous run of NW winds off the United States for a few days straight too so the short term looks decent with more smaller scale NW swell. NW doesn’t need to look too big on paper to be decent here in Rincon. It’s more of a straight shot and hits our surf spots better than other angles. This is why the past few days have been so fun even though it’s not the biggest. The rest of the week should have some waist to chest high surf with the biggest day probably being tomorrow with some head high sets on occasion at the most exposed breaks. It’s a simple forecast, but it’s most likely to stick.

When is the next big swell?

Remember when I mentioned a huge storm system in the pacific a few weeks back and then the following week we had several days of double overhead waves? I see something similar happening again. The Pacific is lighting up once again and I’m hoping it can swing and swoop something major across the US and into the Atlantic. Last time was more a Jetstream shift, but this time I’m hoping for more of a swoop or a dip. Whatever this system does this week will shape what we see for next week. We already have plenty of weather to keep the short term forecast looking decent.

Why are all the automated forecast models having trouble lately?

I have no idea. When this happens i depend more on real-time data and satellite loops. Satellite loops will tell you everything. Watching a satellite loop is like watching the line-up. You start to notice when a set is coming and the patterns get more familiar. Buoy data helps confirm what you think will happen based on what you see. That’s how I knew we would have the long period swell last weekend even though none of the models picked up on it. Also – it seems that some of NOAA’s servers are being weird and haven’t processed an up-to-date forecast correctly based on our current data. I don’t know if it’s a GFS thing or a WaveWatch III thing or what.

NW swell in the making – get ready to surf!

This swell has a lot of west in it. It’s more of a WNW swell than anything. The storm isn’t swooping out as much or as quickly as originally forecast so I’m expecting more of a Thursday arrival, but a Wednesday evening session might see some action. Expect the swell to stay head high to a couple of feet overhead on the initial pulse. The NW angle should keep the tucked away spots fun. This is good because the wind is going to pick back up from the north and gradually switch to the NE. A lot of exposed breaks could be fun in the early hours of the morning, but will the wind will most likely make them a mess fairly early. The tucked away spots will be the call. The NW angle reaches everywhere though so the wind shouldn’t really be an issue. After Thursday, we will probably see a gradual decrease in size each following day, but we should continue with waist to chest high conditions through the weekend. In the long term, another storm is forecast to pull off the US right around when this swell event fades out. The satellite loops show a steady flow of storms spaced almost equally apart. Have fun everybody!

What a beautiful storm – get ready to surf!

What you see above is a graphic representation generated from live wind data as of the time of this post. Notice how large and symmetrical that winter storm is? The last time we had a storm look like that setup in the same location was in November and we had an amazing swell. We should have a 4 day stretch of swell from this beast. Saturday and Sunday will see NNW to N swell and Monday and Tuesday will see NNE to NE swell with a long period. But that’s not all! There’s a double down! We have another powerful storm sweeping the states as we speak. This means that when the long period NNE kickback swell arrives from storm number one, storm number two will be pulling the winds hard offshore on it’s approach. Then as the swell from storm number one fades, the new NW swell from storm number two will fill in. Storm number two might also offer a 4 day stretch of swell also. This is basically the perfect setup.

How big will it get?

The size should stay in the head high to a couple feet overhead range, but I’m not ruling out some double overhead moments at peak times when the tide is just right and swell is hitting at just the right angle. We shouldn’t have the nonstop current battles that we had with the last major swell event so that should be good.

SAFETY:

Just because we’re not anticipating the swell to be massive doesn’t mean that there will be no risk. This will still be a powerful run of swell and the ocean always deserves respect. Be careful, be smart, don’t take unnecessary risks, and don’t just assume that nothing bad could possibly ever happen. Make sure you have a good leash in decent condition and that the leash string is tied properly and also in good condition. Boards will break on this swell and so will leashes. If it happens to you are you a good enough swimmer to make it back to shore? If not, then don’t paddle out.

Better surf is just around the corner.

This next swell is looking like it will finally have a lot less wind than the last one. This means a lot more spots will be surfable and the added opportunities should help with crowd control. It also means we’ll see a bit longer period in the swell which makes for a stronger and better quality wave. On top of that, we’ll have a little bit of NW angle in the initial pulse, which is what Rincon loves the most. This means that even though the swell might not be as big as originally anticipated (or hoped for by some), we should still see plenty of overhead surf. So when will it get here? Saturday. The first bit of swell should be here by morning and build through the day. I really hope the wind forecast stays on track to keep the wind down so that it will be perfect waves everywhere. I’m sure that everyone visiting the island is hoping for the same thing. The swell should last through the weekend and into early next week. By late next week we are looking to have another system set up for the next swell. So far, plenty of surf this January.

What about from now until Saturday?

Expect smaller conditions perfect for surf lessons. It might be a good time to explore the many other things there are to do on the island if you’re visiting or get some work done if you live here.

More Surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Wow! What a week of big surf we had! This coming week will be considerably calmer but still have plenty of waves for everyone. The start of the week should continue to see some fun chest to head high surf with size dropping each day to surf lesson mania by the end of the work week. Tuesday might offer a unique scenario for Aguadilla and the north side of the island only. If at some point tonight the outside buoys pickup an 8hr run of long period swell from the NE, Tuesday could be very good at the more exposed Aguadilla and Isabela spots. The models aren’t as strong on this scenario as before, but they still call for a fluke batch of long period swell to hit only certain areas. 3-4ft at 18 seconds is what dream sessions are made of so I really hope to get on it if it materializes. Some special barrel spots could be working their magic.

When can we surf more big waves in Rincon?

I don’t know if it’s just the default setting for this time of year but it seems that the end of the forecast period of just about every model calls for a major NW swell 7 to 10 days out. Personally, I want to see what happens with the humongous winter storm that appears to occupy the entire Pacific right now. If that thing sweeps the states or we get something to develop anywhere near that magnitude in the Atlantic, we will have an incredible major swell event. Seasonally it would make sense that within the next two weeks we see another major swell event either way so the future holds nothing but opportunity.

Round 2 Fight! Nonstop surf for Rincon and all of Puerto Rico.

The fetch across the North Atlantic is insane! The north atlantic buoy has been in the 15-18 ft range most of today. This means that Friday’s pulse should be solid even though it will have a NE angle to it. The larger wind swell should continue to pump through tomorrow and most likely we’ll stay at double overhead tomorrow. For Friday and Saturday the period and swell height should be fairly decent to keep us seeing larger surf. The models have been picking up on a super long period pulse on the 17th that could be EPIC. Judging by the setup on satellite imagery right now I am inclined to believe this scenario. We could see some 20 second period NE swell on the 17th. The only bad news in this forecast is that the wind will not slow down. Tucked away nooks and crannies will continue to be the call. Unfortunately, NE angle won’t reach as well into those nooks and crannies like this past run of NW swell did.

Massive swell event forecast for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Ok… yeah, this weekend’s long period swell ended up being a dud. In my defence I did warn that long period NE swell tends to come in late and can miss Rincon if the size or angle isn’t sufficient for Rincon. I still think the conditions tomorrow should be surfable here in Rincon, but more than likely the spots picking up the swell will be pretty heavily crowded and the wait in between sets will be a bit long. Don’t stress it though. This coming week is going to have an abundance of surf. Super tucked spots will be the call for most people and should be working great. The wind will be fairly strong so the tucked away spots will also be the call to find glassy conditions. Big wave spots should be working just fine for all the thrill seekers, but a little more length in your board could prove helpful. The winds are going to be pushing very hard offshore making it a little harder to get down the face on some of the days. The big stuff should show up by Tuesday and last through Friday. We’re talking 4-5 days of double overhead and bigger surf (possibly more). There is going to be a lot of wind with this swell event so mornings will probably be the best time to catch it – whether you’re going for the big stuff or the tucked away and smaller spots.

SAFETY FIRST!

If you’re out of your league don’t figure that out in the water. Seriously, know your limits before paddling out. The wind and currents will add an extra element of danger. When considering a paddle out, you can’t just make a decision based on the size of the waves alone. Watch how it’s breaking, where it’s breaking, and how fast the water is moving. I think the current is going to be a big issue with this swell, especially if the winds go side-shore at times. Be careful and have fun.