Possible big swell a week out; not much until then.

This high pressure blocking our swell window has been intense. Almost the entire first half of March has been wind fest. It looks like that will continue to be the case. My guess is that the entire month of March continues a lot of wind, but at least we might get more swell to punch through. I’ve been watching the long range model runs for a change all month and the 18th and 19th have been consistently seeing a nice storm right in our swell window. The runs consistently put the low right where we needs it to be to get some N to NNW swell going.

What about Sunday?

Sunday should be fun with some chest to head high surf and occasionally bigger sets with waist to chest high leftovers on Monday morning. Some of the automated surf forecast sites threw up some crazy false positives on a major swell event for Sunday – they were horribly mistaken and now correcting toward a more realistic outcome. I think I’m right on this one because I’m not seeing anything on the buoys to suggest otherwise.

So Two days next week and one day this weekend? That’s it for the rest of March?

Not necessarily. Looks like after the 17th we see a change in the flow off the states with more storms trying to dip down and out. Some are currently forecast to push through and others are not. I think after a non-stop February, we were due for a bit of slow down. That came in the first couple of weeks in March. I think the second half of March is going to rage.

Rincon kind of got skunked on the Hurricane Edouward Swell

It looked like the swell would be strong enough to push into Rincon, but the path of the storm just didn’t cooperate enough to give Rincon the reach-around. The swell wrapped around as best it could but that still just left us with surf lesson waves in Rincon. The North side of the island got pretty decent and there was quite a few fun sessions to be had, but the crowds were super heavy. The swell in reality didn’t have nearly as much of a NE angle as all the models were predicting. In the ocean it was mainly East swell. Unfortunately, the forecast is looking grim again.

Rincon: We stay small to flat for the foreseeable future. Some background pulses might show up over the weekend off and on with the tides, but don’t expect much.

Isabela/Aguadilla: Smaller leftovers starting tomorrow with a big drop in size by Friday. Some waist to chest high wind chop should be on hand over the next week or so though.