Active weather in the surf forecast for surfing Puerto Rico.

The endless supply of tropical waves coming off of Africa is really starting to pile up across the Atlantic. All this heat should give them plenty to feed on. Over the weekend we should see one pass just north of our island and give us a possible little bump. In addition we have a weak low that pulled off the states and is sitting in our swell window. Any increase in the intensity of any of the above mentioned weather systems and we could be looking at some fun surf. As it goes now, the best chance for quality surf here in Rincon is looking to show up early next week. Over the weekend, the north side of the island should see the most size from this tropical system with some head high surf at the right spot. The conditions might be a bit nasty though.

Weather patterns are on constant repeat – no surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

I haven’t updated the forecast in a long while. It’s because it was exactly the same every single day. The same weak low’s would pull of the states, the same endless tropical waves would pull off Africa, and the same surf forecast would watch them all dissipate and disintegrate into nothing the closer they got to Puerto Rico. It seemed like whenever anything would ever get close to our swell window it would disappear. We would get tiny background swells that were perfect for pushing little kids and first timers for surf lessons, but not much for anyone else. Will it continue to do this? Yes. However, statistically speaking we should see some tropical systems start to form in September and as early as late August. We have had no shortage of tropical waves. In that sense we’ve had a very active season so far with plenty of tropical possibilities, but none of them have materialized into anything for surfing here in Rincon. The southeast corner of Puerto Rico has seemed to be having a great summer with several days around chest high over there. The north side of the island has had plenty of waist high weak windswell so far. Rincon has just remained hot and tiny. I’ll have a separate post up soon with how I’ve managed to keep my sanity over the past couple of months.

Background swell and flatness for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We are in the summer and it’s common to stay flat at this time of year. However, we at least have some longboardable background pulses that should show up over the next few weeks. Because the swell will be quite weak, surfable conditions may come and go at random depending on a variety of factors including tide, wind, and spot. For the most part though don’t expect any swell to rage unless we get a good tropical system in our swell window.

My Tropical Prediction: Active Season.

“It’s too hot for a penguin to be running around, we gotta get you to the zoo!”
– Billy Madison.

This summer is going to be a hot one! Even though it seems the earth is already doing it’s best to channel the heat northward by other means at the moment, we’re still going to see a heavy build up of heat in the tropics. The ITCZ has been blowing up regularly on sat images. Within a month’s time we should have plenty of fuel to develop some storms. Heat is the food source for tropical systems. If we can get some periods of low wind shear we’re bound to see some action in the common development areas of the Tropical Atlantic as the passing waves feast on the unbearable heat of the tropics.

Wax ’em Up! Get ready to surf!

Yes, seriously. We have some waves coming in. Granted the north side of the island up in Isabela will see most of the size, but we have a nice medium to long period swell set to fill in over the next few days. I am surprised as you are, but it’s a very welcome surprise.

Here’s how I see it playing out:
Thursday: Small in Rincon in the morning with some waist high sets in the evening. Isabela should be head high all day.
Friday: Waist to chest high most of the day and glassy here in Rincon. Isabela/Aguadilla area should reach chest to head high with light onshore winds.
Saturday: Knee to waist high leftovers in Rincon and waist to chest high leftovers in Isabela.
Sunday: Flat.

Beyond the weekend:

A lot will depend on what happens with the broad low pressure that is sitting to the Northwest of Puerto Rico. If it can develop into something and strengthen while it’s still in our swell window, we could be looking at some tropical swell late next week.

It’s going to be one of those summers.

Nothing but scraps from out in the North Atlantic for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico. We look to stay completely flat for the rest of the month. We can hope for some phantom bumps here and there, but don’t expect any actual swell. I’ll try to keep up with the report so that you can know if one of those phantom background swells shows up. With all of this heat we can start to hope for an active Tropical Season. Let’s all hope for plenty of storm swell and no destruction. Big storms that just sit out at sea create some of the best swells ever to hit our coasts.

No surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

The glimmer of hope that we had is now gone. All of the wind and resulting waves are pointed away from us. I was hoping the late season Low Pressure system would pull out further with stronger winds behind it. Unfortunately, the strongest winds and interaction with the giant high pressure over the Atlantic is going to pump all of the winds away from us. This means we’re going to have strong south winds and REALLY HOT weather over the next few days. We will have no surf here. Hopefully Isabela will offer some rideable surf and stay glassy with all this south wind.

Everybody’s Surfing For The Weekend!

The models have been consistently putting a fun little chest high swell on Rincon’s beaches for the weekend. Until then it will be quite small to completely flat. Some days will have a good surf lesson wave early in the morning so if you’ve been wanting to learn to surf this will be a good week. I’ll update as necessary but count the work week out for any considerable surf.

Hurricane Danny degenerates into a remnant low with no surf.

As of 11am AST Danny, the tiniest hurricane I’ve ever seen completely degenerated into a remnant low. The southeast corner of the island is currently flat and the rest of Puerto Rico is flat as well. As the remnants pass tomorrow, we should get plenty of rain and come light winds. The southeast still might see some small swell tomorrow, but the conditions will most likely be nasty.

Look at the storm behind him for another shot at waves.

The storm system behind Danny is working itself together and might form another storm that could possibly be a wave-maker for Puerto Rico. NOAA’s WaveWatch III seems to like it. It’s consistently had it pegged as a wave maker for the coming weekend. We’ll have see if that pans out.

Tropical Storm Claudette forms – no major surf expected.

Tropical Storm Claudette is actually looking decent on satellite imagery, but she just doesn’t have the right trajectory or amount of strength to be a significant surf generator. If she was dipping down or intensifying or both then we could see a better chance at some tropical swell. Unfortunately, she’s doing the opposite of that. She’s moving away from us (as she has since formation) and is going to weaken. We still might see some background swell at some point over the next couple of days, but don’t expect too much.

Keep an eye on different parts of the island.

There are tropical waves passing the lower Atlantic and Caribbean. They have no chance whatsoever of forming down there, but they do have the ability to make fun waves at certain unique spots on the island. The southeast corner of PR has plenty of opportunities. If a wave is strong enough pressure-wise the north side of the island can see some fun surf as well. Now is the time to explore.

When does a higher latitude storm give Rincon waves?

When it’s very strong and has a solid high pressure build in behind it to amplify it’s backside fetch. We need a long fetch pointed at us to get surf no matter what force of nature is causing it. Also, if we do get a larger high latitude storm and it happens to make a wobble south or dip down we almost always get some good swell. Rapid intensification is also good for groundswell. When a storm sits kinda stationary in our swell wind and then rapidly intensifies it sets a bomb off in the ocean. Anything Category 3 and above in our swell window will generally give us good surf. These are the scenarios to watch for. I hope we see it happen this season.