It’s going to be one of those summers.

Nothing but scraps from out in the North Atlantic for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico. We look to stay completely flat for the rest of the month. We can hope for some phantom bumps here and there, but don’t expect any actual swell. I’ll try to keep up with the report so that you can know if one of those phantom background swells shows up. With all of this heat we can start to hope for an active Tropical Season. Let’s all hope for plenty of storm swell and no destruction. Big storms that just sit out at sea create some of the best swells ever to hit our coasts.

No surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

The glimmer of hope that we had is now gone. All of the wind and resulting waves are pointed away from us. I was hoping the late season Low Pressure system would pull out further with stronger winds behind it. Unfortunately, the strongest winds and interaction with the giant high pressure over the Atlantic is going to pump all of the winds away from us. This means we’re going to have strong south winds and REALLY HOT weather over the next few days. We will have no surf here. Hopefully Isabela will offer some rideable surf and stay glassy with all this south wind.

Plenty of weather to watch for possible surf in Rincon.

We have a lot of weather going on but nothing that screams surf just yet. First of all, Tropical Depressions Nine and Ten are meaningless storms that will serve no purpose in life. Forget about them. However, that tropical blob hanging around off the coast of the Florida might be our best bet. If it can develop we’ll get decent surf as long as it can whip out a little more to the east. All of the storms suffer from westerly and southwesterly shear so don’t expect any windfield on his west side. Any swell we get will be from it’s possible movement east along with pressure gradient and a possible front or high pressure that may move the storm. If we get enough weather behind that blob we could see a week’s worth of fun surf. That’s the best case scenario. The worst case scenario (and most likely) is that the blob just gets swept away from a week front that only climbs lattitude and goes to Cananda and we get the skunk. Only time will tell. Any new swell to show up should get here around mid-week next week.

Tropical Storm Claudette forms – no major surf expected.

Tropical Storm Claudette is actually looking decent on satellite imagery, but she just doesn’t have the right trajectory or amount of strength to be a significant surf generator. If she was dipping down or intensifying or both then we could see a better chance at some tropical swell. Unfortunately, she’s doing the opposite of that. She’s moving away from us (as she has since formation) and is going to weaken. We still might see some background swell at some point over the next couple of days, but don’t expect too much.

Keep an eye on different parts of the island.

There are tropical waves passing the lower Atlantic and Caribbean. They have no chance whatsoever of forming down there, but they do have the ability to make fun waves at certain unique spots on the island. The southeast corner of PR has plenty of opportunities. If a wave is strong enough pressure-wise the north side of the island can see some fun surf as well. Now is the time to explore.

When does a higher latitude storm give Rincon waves?

When it’s very strong and has a solid high pressure build in behind it to amplify it’s backside fetch. We need a long fetch pointed at us to get surf no matter what force of nature is causing it. Also, if we do get a larger high latitude storm and it happens to make a wobble south or dip down we almost always get some good swell. Rapid intensification is also good for groundswell. When a storm sits kinda stationary in our swell wind and then rapidly intensifies it sets a bomb off in the ocean. Anything Category 3 and above in our swell window will generally give us good surf. These are the scenarios to watch for. I hope we see it happen this season.

I know I sound like a broken record player: No fronts in our swell window, More NE background swell.

I want another dip in the jetstream to push another front off Hatteras into our swell window. I really do. It’s just not going to happen soon. We are left with small to flat conditions in the long-run through the end of the month. We will continue to get background NE pulses here and there, but nothing major.

Right now we have a super fun long period NE swell and it will be fun for one day only. Expect dropping size by tomorrow and we’ll fade back to surf lesson, longboard, and little kid waves by mid-week.

Now for the good news! The models are going crazy at the end of the month with big storms pulling off the states into our swell window. The beginning of December will probably rage! I think we’re going to have a great December. I am going out of town in early December so there will absolutely 100% certainty that a big swell will show up while I am gone. You’re welcome.