High pressure moves in – small surf.

First, let me say that I don’t see it going completely flat. We have a lot of activity in the Atlantic and background swell will persist on and off throughout the forecast period. However, whenever high pressure takes center stage, we see weaker wind swell with a slightly unfavorable angle for Rincon. Again, from what I see in the weather we should still have some waist to chest high days, but don’t expect the bombing NW swell that we’ve seeing the past couple of weeks. The past couple of weeks have been a prime example of favorable angle and the classic conditions that correlate. That’s why I get so excited over NW swell. NE windswell on the other hand always tends to be a bit frustrating for me. This is because it tends to be weaker and mushy. The weekend and early next week will see the death of the NW swell event and the start of the NE windswell event. Here’s how I see things playing out.

Saturday will most likely drop off to waist high with glassy conditions at exposed breaks.
Sunday could possibly see one last NW background pulse fill in before letting high pressure windswell take over. Waist to chest high surf with decent power and angle and glassy conditions should persist through the day.
Monday will be somewhat of a replay of Sunday only more short lived. Expect the winds to pick up considerably around noon and turn everything to wind chop later in the day.
Tuesday is currently forecast to be the official arrival of NE windswell, but no matter what the automated forecast tools tell you, don’t expect more than waist to chest high with weak and mushy conditions. I might be wrong on this (and I hope I am), but high pressure windswell never has the same power as solid groundswell.
Wednesday will probably be a surf lesson wave in the waist high range.
Thursday models are hinting at some long period NE swell to show up in the chest to head high range. We’ll have a better idea by Tuesday if this is going to materialize. I am inclined to believe it as the North Atlantic has been very active so far.
Friday is currently the official arrival of a small sized, long-period NE swell in the chest to head high range. Again I’ll have to confirm this by mid-week next week.

Models trending on large NW swell for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Just about every forecast model has been calling for the massive winter storm currently over the eastern United States to pull out in the Atlantic and bomb out. The predicted winds and pressure drop are looking like a classic cold-front setup with classic swell. This should be a 5 day swell event. If the storm really does swoop out as forecast, we could possibly see some fun NW swell creep in on Saturday before getting the full blast on Sunday. But Sunday and Monday have been consistently pegged as being some solid double overhead days with bigger sets. The NW angle is ideal for Rincon. This is going to be a good run of swell. Here’s how I see it playing out:

Thursday will see a fun surf lesson wave in the waist high range at exposed breaks.
Friday will pretty much be a repeat of Thursday but with lighter winds in the morning.
Saturday will most likely start out small but increase in size every hour on the hour and end up a few feet overhead by sundown. If the winds stay light, all Rincon spots will be firing as the swell comes in. NW angled swell really lights up Rincon.
Sunday will be at least double overhead and strong. The NW angle and longer period will result in open barrels at many spots. The conditions will be big and heavy.
Monday will see the swell angle change so anticipate a slight change in the the power. However, big surf will persist this entire day.
Tuesday the surf will fade a little but still remain head high with bigger sets.
Wednesday another NW swell is supposed to fill in keeping the surf head high with bigger sets.

Sloppy choppy surf for Rincon then good again.

The next couple of days will feature heavy winds and choppy conditions. However, after the initial wind chop we should see some fun clean-up days with light winds. Remember though that shorter period waves tend to not have too much push. Pick a spot that normally has a little more punch or you might get a bit frustrated on the clean-up days. We have had a super long fetch pushing the Western Atlantic at us for a few days now. I find it hard to believe that we won’t see at least a couple of days of chest to head high surf for the clean-up starting Sunday. Here’s how I see things playing out:

Friday will have overhead sloppy choppy waves and heavy winds. The initial push of heavy wind chop and shorter period swell might make it difficult for super tucked away spots to start working.
Saturday should see a slight improvement here in Rincon, but most exposed breaks up north will stay wind blown and garbage. Expect head high surf at the tucked away spots in Rincon with slightly wobbly lines. The afternoon will see more carnage from the wind and turn back into victory at sea conditions.
Sunday the winds are forecast to drop off to nothing here in Rincon. This will be the first cleanup day and the exposed spots should be fun with clean conditions and chest to head high surf at exposed breaks. I anticipate crowds to be very heavy, but I also anticipate several waves in each set and several sets back to back. The amount of waves may supply enough action for the crowds. Also expect a lot of paddling.
Monday should stay around chest to head high with clean conditions and be fun everywhere. No need to crowd a single peak on this day.

More NW swell on the way!

This next front is going to sit and then swoop out right in our perfect swell window for NW swell generation. This means that most of next week will go off! The wind is forecast to pretty much shut down next week as well which should leave just about every spot in Rincon breaking perfectly for the greater part of the day. Granted, when there is no dominant wind, we tend to see a light onshore breeze everywhere, I’m still expecting glassy conditions at least until noon. Our current pulse should last straight through to the next swell so no one will be bored (unless you’re a boring person). Here’s out I see the week playing out:

Sunday chest to head high leftovers should persist through the day at the most exposed breaks with glassy conditions everywhere in the morning.
Monday waist to chest high leftovers again featuring glassy conditions the first half of the day at the more exposed breaks.
Tuesday will see the full punch of whatever that current storm decides to do. I anticipate 2-3ft overhead sets and glassy conditions at tucked away breaks and really good form.
Wednesday looks really fun with head high glassy leftovers with no wind.
Thursday waist to chest high leftovers with no wind and fading conditions though the day.
Friday is a bit of an unknown but most likely to see some weak NE background swell perfect for surf lessons. However, if any of these storms also amplify out in the North Atlantic, we could very well start to see some NE long period kick back for the weekend.

Cold front swell and fun surf in Rincon, PR.

This next front isn’t the biggest storm, but the swoop out into the Atlantic and decent NE fetch on the back side of it will give us waves for the work week. Don’t expect anything huge, but we should have some persistent swell and fun conditions over the next few days. The more powerful front is forecast to avoid our swell window all together and make europe continue to fire. Let’s hope that isn’t the theme of this season. We’ve had a fair mix of early fronts, late tropical systems, and hybrid storms so I’m inclined to think variety will be the theme of this season with a few decent runs of classic cold-front swell. Here’s how I see the next 5 days playing out:

Monday will be the biggest with some 2-3ft overhead sets by sundown. I wouldn’t be surprised by a late arrival as the NW swell is on the North Atlantic buoy but completely absent from all the other buoys. This often happens when the NW is generated too far east off the US. We might end up with more of a N to NNE angle in what actually shows up.
Tuesday will most likely be similar to Monday mid-day but the swell will have a little less power and a little longer wait in between sets. We’re still talking head high at the more exposed breaks though and the winds should be fairly light for the first half of the day. Lighter winds means more breaks to surf without a crowd.
Wednesday NE leftovers in the chest high range with light winds will stick around almost the entire day.
Thursday old swell completely dies out while a background pulse from another weather system shows up. At this point we’ll have a better idea of any possible long period swell that might be generated from the Far North Atlantic or at least another weak front with a smaller scale NW pulse.
Friday could see a bump up in the surf with some overhead sets at exposed breaks.

As always check back through the week as I will update if anything changes. As stated in the breakdown, a possible long period swell event may be on the horizon beyond 10 days from a possible large storm in the far North Atlantic.