Smaller surf to persist in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We have enough going on in the ocean above us to keep us from going completely flat, but don’t expect to much any time soon. This late in the season, even when a low pulls off the states into our swell window it generally doesn’t deepen enough to make anything huge. Any anomalous strong storms will most likely continue to be European swell events. That’s the new norm in North Atlantic weather patterns lately. The long period kick back swell from those storms can be iffy (much like the forecast long period swell that never showed up last week). Live buoy data will be important over the next few weeks. As stated before, the weather setup we currently have should be able to send some surf our way, but it will be fickle. NE background swell will come and go with the tides and NW wind swell will come and go as well. I’m expecting a week to ten days of waist high waves with a notch up or down at random moments. Some days might actually go completely flat. I’m working on improving the site so that updates can be done more frequently.

Smaller Surf in the forecast for Surfing Puerto Rico.

This late in the season it’s no surprise to see a decline in lower latitude winter storms. Unfortunately it would appear that they have disappeared all together and the weather has resumed it’s “up and over” pattern for low pressure with the Bermuda High setting up strong and early this year. This disturbs me – the water is already 81.5F down here and 82 is the minimum to support tropical cyclone formation. More about that in a separate post though. For now we will focus on the two weather systems that should generate some decent smaller surf. The first pulse should arrive from a combination of high pressure wind swell and low pressure NW wind swell. In both instances you notice that it’s all wind swell. Sorry but 10 seconds is the most we’re getting out of this first pulse. The good news is that the NW angle hits Rincon very well and 2ft at 10s from the NW makes for some fun chest high surf at several spots. I’m anticipating this weekend to stay in the waist to chest high range in Rincon. Round two should start to fill in early next week. This second pulse will also be a combo swell with NW wind swell followed by long period NE swell if the storm pulls out as currently forecast. We should see the really long period swell hit most of Puerto Rico on Tuesday through Thursday if all goes according to plan. If we really do see some 2.5ft at 18 seconds swell, several spots should be around head high and bigger on sets here in Rincon.

Major Swell Event for Surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Get ready folks, the waves are going to get big again. The weather has been pretty active and we’re finally seeing some lower latitude storms pull off the states. The current system gave a decent dip/whip down and is currently amplifying just enough to give us a decent swell. Get ready for some more Tres Palmas action. This swell won’t be as massive as the swell of the season, but don’t underestimate it either. The period will be longest on Thursday and Friday as well as the swell height. Most people have the most fun on days with only 2-4ft of groundswell. So if you’re thinking 8ft at 15 seconds isn’t very big you’re going to be humbled pretty fast when you get to the beach. Use a good leash, inspect your equipment, and STAY SAFE! Tomorrow will probably stay around waist to chest high. Wednesday will start off around head high and build throughout the day into the double overhead range. Thursday will be double overhead and bigger. Friday will be close to double overhead. Saturday is looking more like a head high to a couple of feet overhead day and Sunday the waist to chest high leftovers. I really don’t see why we won’t have another swell event similar to this one next week around the same time as well. Another storm is sweeping across the states currently.

More Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

This looks like a decent enough cold-front to me! There are some key differences between this winter storm and last week’s super swell, but the current storm system should have plenty of power, fetch, and positioning to to throw a nice NW swell our way. The motion of this storm isn’t going to have the same dip down and push the entire North Atlantic at us. It’s going to move north and climb latitudes which means that the pulse will probably not last as long as the super swell. I still expect 3-4 days of perfect surf from the current weather system. We could see the first pulse of swell as early as tomorrow evening and it should last into Saturday morning. Depending on what the storm does at sea we might see some NE long-period kickback into the weekend and early next week. It’s not currently forecast to do that, but from what I’m seeing in the forecast track of the winter storm it might be a possibility. Tomorrow will probably start off small in the waist high range and build into head high by evening. Thursday could see some sets into the double overhead range with most of the surf averaging a couple feet overhead at most spots. Friday should be fading but still have chest to head conditions with a little bigger set thrown in at random. Saturday will start off chest high as well and slowly fade out as the day goes on. I’ll keep checking on the progress of this storm and update accordingly. But basically, get ready to surf!

Major Swell Event – Surf in Rincon!

Now this is a storm! We should expect to see decent conditions persist through the weekend with moderate size. This storm is positioned nicely and a welcome change to our previous weather pattern. The bulk of the NW swell from this storm should hit earlier in the weekend and arrive by tomorrow. NW swells tend to show up early. Most models are calling for the main push on Sunday, but judging by the storms current location and associated winds I think it will get here early. The angle will be perfect for getting a lot of the tucked away spots working without the heavy wind of the previous swell event earlier in the month. This means that the early morning glass could last longer into the day. We’ve already been seeing surf show up that has been considerably better than the forecast models have predicted and even more solid than was measured by real-time data. I’m inclined to think that this weekend’s swell could get big when it maxes out. Expect decent leftovers for early next week. Because the storm is forecast to setup a nice fetch behind it, a long-period NE swell can be generated from this storm as well. The long-period swell setup will be what to look for at the start of next week, and if confirmed we will stay surfing with swell in the water into next weekend.

Cold-front bombs out giving surf to Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Now we’re talking! This storm is a beast and it rapidly intensified right in our swell window. Sorry for all the folks in the NE United States who are going to get rocked by this massive storm. I hope you’re alright when this is all done. Bombogenesis is actually a real thing and is associated with some of the biggest swells to hit PR and unfortunately the most winter destruction in the northern latitudes at the same time. This storm definitely “bombed out” big time and will give us the first big swell of 2018. Expect some perfect Tres Palmas this weekend and just about every other spot performing as it does in a classic winter swell. Due to what I’m seeing on the Bahamas buoys, I’m inclined to think we’ll see the swell show up a bit bigger than what the automated surf forecast systems are anticipating. We’re definitely going to see double overhead conditions and possibly bigger. DO NOT PADDLE OUT IF YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU’RE DOING IN BIG WAVES! I really don’t want anyone to die surfing this storm. Please do not overestimate your abilities or underestimate the power of the ocean. As surfers we are always at the mercy of the elements. We are only in control of our own actions and nothing else. If the ocean wants to throw a 20ft clean-up set at you, it will and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can only control where you are when that happens. For many, sitting on the beach watching will be the safest place to be when that happens.

More reasonable surf should be on tap for the coming week and offer plenty of “normal” waves that will still pack a punch. As of right now we’ve already had a couple of days of surf from this weather system and it looks like another week of rideable waves will follow. Plenty of opportunities at several spots should be available in the coming week so there’s no need to crowd one break. Expect a little bit of size to drop off each day, but if the right pattern sticks, we could see another decent long period swell by the end of next week to keep everyone surfing through the first half of January. I guess after a very quiet December surf-wise, the earth is trying to catch back up. Be safe everyone! Have fun!

Plenty of weather to keep us all surfing in Rincon.

I think this coming swell is going to be a lot of fun. We should have a decent little bump up in size for tomorrow in the head high to a foot overhead range and then a little drop in size for Friday in the chest high range. The weekend will be insanely busy, but should have plenty of surf. The winds are supposed to lay down through the weekend but pick up hard for the coming week. I hope the winds stay light. Light winds means countless chunks of coastline will be surfable and therefore a chance to surf without a crowd. Once the swell angle changes to the NNE to NE and gets a longer period behind it, the wait in between decent sets will get longer and frustration will easily build if you’re trying to surf a crowded spot.

If the swell delays slightly, Saturday could be the most frustrating day to go the beach. A major holiday weekend and tons of people looking for waves is fine if the waves are everywhere. But if the swell delays and only one or two spots have a decent wave, the whole island will pack into one break and fight it out. I want no part of that. The swell should definitely be here by Sunday though. If it shows up Saturday then great. Saturday might involve some travel time to find a secluded beach with surf to avoid aggression, disappointment, and feelings of worthlessness.

Nonstop Surf for Rincon – OH YEAH!

Seriously, when I took a look at the satellite loops this evening I couldn’t be happier. We have a steady flow of surf generating weather and the models are picking up on the closest ones giving us more NNE and NNW swell. I honestly see a couple weeks worth of surf based on current satellite imagery, but it just might be the stoke talking. This past swell has been so ridiculously perfect and fun. This has been a great season! Look for Monday and Tuesday to mellow out a little bit to a more friendly size but still be really fun. We should still see some head high surf with decent power. Monday will still see some nice overhead sets linger on. Another pulse up should arrive by mid-week and slowly fade a notch each day from Friday through the weekend.

Plenty more surf on the way for Rincon!

Wow what a busy weather map. That low that pulled up from the south was the only variable not picked up on by any of the model runs when I wrote the previous forecast. That whole setup was very rare for this time of year, but that low has been the gift that keeps on giving. The past 3 days have felt like a hurricane swell. Cranking NW swell and hard SW winds is always fun. There’s so much going on in the Atlantic right now that trying distinguish exactly how it will all contribute to the surf we see on the beach piece by piece is somewhat pointless. All you need to know is that the surf will continue to rage for the next 7 days. We shouldn’t get below waist to chest high at the main breaks and the mornings should be glassy. We might see a more onshore everywhere flow in the afternoons, but the mornings should always have a glassy option on at least one of the sides of Rincon. Wednesday looks like the scheduled arrival date for the next distinguishable pulse and we could easily see some overhead sets again with glassy conditions for the west facing spots. That pulse should linger through the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some long period swell creep in the mix as well from the far north storm, but none of the models are biting on that scenario yet – too much weather closer to the island. Have fun, stay safe, and show respect in the water.

Get ready for another major swell event!

We look to be hit with a two pronged attack. First off we will see some NNW swell fill in Tuesday evening and by Wednesday morning we should be double overhead on sets. Thursday will remain big and Friday might drop down a notch or two while round two works its way to the island. It looks like the entire Atlantic well be pushed at Puerto Rico again for the weekend so expect to see really big short period swell again and a lot of wind. I’ve noticed the nooks and crannies have been liking the shorter period swells with the higher wave heights. They will be the best call again since wind blockage will be necessary. Tres is going to fire for several days. The swell should last into early next week.

BE SAFE!

I’m not kidding. Don’t overestimate your abilities and don’t underestimate the danger out there. It is very dangerous. Let’s try and get through this swell safely and still have fun. If you’ve had the same leash on your board for a long time you might want to consider getting a new one (or two).