Aguadilla was raging this morning! The spread out spots more prone to picking up longer period swell from the open ocean were lining up with sets slightly above double overhead. The crowds were a bit intense, but if you were patient the right wave would come to you. Bigger surf offers a unique thrill that I especially love. This swell has been good so far and a bit bigger than I expected. Let’s hope it lasts as long as it’s supposed to.

That high pressure isn’t leaving any time soon – wind swell continues.

We should continue to have some leftover groundswell linger over the next couple of days, but the wind swell from the impenetrable high pressure system over our side of the Atlantic will continue for another week. The angle of the wind swell will gradually shift to a more easterly direction which will leave Rincon small to flat early next week. By mid-week next week we might see another front pull off the states. As for this week, expect the size of the surf to drop off a little each day of the forecast period.

I’ll try to update with a play by play for each day later on.

Surf is on the way! Get ready.

Well it seems that that our collective mind willing worked to get the storm out over the ocean sooner and stronger than previously forecast. Unfortunately I guess we all forgot to add a lower latitude push to our telepathic requests. The storm has in fact pushed out to sea and intensified, however it’s way up North by Nova Scotia. This means that the swell will need more time to get here. Arrival is still set for Monday. The period should be decent as we have hard north winds in our swell window with a decent fetch. The swinging of the trough can still put some NNW angle on it as well. Next week is going to rage! Unfortunately so will the winds so we might have some nastiness mid week.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

Friday: Pretty much flat, but maybe a knee high crumbler at the most exposed breaks.
Saturday: Some knee high cumblers for day 1 of the contest with super glassy conditions and no wind.
Sunday: Some waist high peelers for day 2 of the contest with glassy conditions and light wind. Hopefully we’ll see some chest high sets on occasion.
Monday: Swell shows up with a decent period and should be a couple feet overhead on sets and powerful early morning. By the end of the day we should see double overhead surf. The wind will pick up slightly but should be just the right amount of offshore for west facing spots to go off all day.
Tuesday: Swell sticks around with a bit more wind. The surf should stay in the 2-3ft overhead range through the day.
Wednesday: Massive windy swell in the double overhead range working only at super protected spots.
Thursday: Even more massive double to triple overhead gnarly wind swell with tucked away nooks and crannies working fairly well (i hope).

This is the storm that could be making some waves next week!

So far Monday and Tuesday seem to be when the models are calling for some swell to show up from the storm above. Bear in mind that we are still several days out and the a lot of things have to happen for this to pan out. If the storm strengthens a bit and pulls off the states sooner, we’ll see some swell sooner. This is what everyone who is doing the contest this weekend and who is involved in throwing the contest is hoping for. If enough people stare at this storm on sat images and mind-will it to strengthen and dip out into the Atlantic early, it just might happen. Seasonally, however, it’s more likely to come in a little later than expected. Plus the models are giving the storm a bit of a higher latitude track which tends to delay swell arrival on account of the swell being generated further away from our island. The period is looking a bit longer with this scenario though. Only time will tell.

Here’s what is currently forecast to happen:

Wednesday – Leftover wind swell in the waist high range with some bigger sets and clean conditions in the morning.
Thursday – Mushy background swell in the knee to waist high range perfect for surf lessons.
Friday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Saturday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Sunday – Lake flat conditions most of the day with some knee high wind chop by the evening.
Monday – Chest to head high and glassy conditions in the morning. Swell will build to a few feet overhead by the end of the day with strong winds as the swell fills in.
Tuesday – 2ft Overhead with some double overhead sets and windy in the afternoon. Find wind blocked spots and surf to your hearts content. The swell period should be decent and provide plenty of power.

Swell in the short term, small in the long term.

It looks like plenty of swell has finally been built up in the Atlantic to keep Rincon happy with surf from Sunday through Tuesday. Expect surf to build into waist to chest high on Sunday with light winds and glassy conditions for the first half of the day. On Monday the swell should be decent in the head high range with clean conditions in the first half of the day. Tuesday will stay chest to head high in the morning with fading conditions as the days go on. Beyond that we will have small surf in Rincon until the next week. Notice all the high pressure over the states in the image above? That’s what is going to dominate most of the week and next weekend and why this next swell probably won’t work after Tuesday here in Rincon. The north side of the island should have some decent sized wind swell with semi-sloppy conditions every day of the week. It definitely won’t be flat up there, but the form will probably not be the best. Should the winds relax one night, the morning could be fun!

Possible big swell in the extended forecast.

Granted, 10 days out in the forecast period carries a ridiculous level of uncertainty. However, after a bit of a flatspell from mid-week through the weekend, it would make sense that something major would be on the horizon that far out. A few of the prediction models are starting to anticipate a lower latitude cold front right in our swell window for a decent NW swell. This scenario is what I will be watching for closely as the week goes on.