December is looking like a skunk month.

I have been procrastinating on writing this forecast mainly because i do not like it. All of the long range models are putting the current and future cold-fronts on a path that avoids our swell window to a large degree only to amplify them in the far Northern Atlantic and dump endless swell at Europe. This has been a pattern very common to the last couple of seasons so I’m inclined to believe that the forecasts are going to come true.

No waves in December? Really?

We should still see some waist to chest high days here and there, but for the most part no big swells are showing up on the models. I think a realistic hope is that some of the higher latitude storms get so big and strong that we get some long period NE swell which could make for some really fun days. Just make sure you don’t surf a crowded spot on those good days because long period NE swells tend to have a lot of lulls and long waits in between sets.

Short term forecast:

We stay small for the next 10 days. The conditions will be perfect for beginners, non-picky/high-stoke longboarders, and surf lessons. For everyone else, go fishing or diving! There has been so many schools of various fish running right now. Get some!

Plenty of weather to keep some small surf on tap.

I know everyone’s gotta be tired after the solid run of swell we’ve had. Let your arms grow back. We’ll take a little break for the next week as we stay small, but we shouldn’t be completely flat. The north side of the island should see some waist to chest high surf all of next week. Rincon will most likely stay in the knee to waist high range with some bigger sets on the right tide, at the right spot, on the right day. Catch up on work, chores, or other responsibilities, it shouldn’t be but another week before we start to see some coldfront action… I hope. In the meantime, it’s a great time to learn how to surf. The waves will be perfect beginner waves all of the coming week.

A couple days of surf and then back to summer.

I’m stoked to be able to get in the water for a couple of days this late in May. And honestly, I’m surprised we’re still seeing storm systems pull off the states this late in the season. After this pulse fades out tomorrow evening we might have some knee high leftovers for Wednesday. Tomorrow should still be waist to chest high though at the most exposed breaks. Everything long range just points at the usual wind chop on the North side of the island and small to flat conditions here in Rincon. Anything can happen though. We might have a good setup to get more long period NE swell on the north side of the island a week out or so.

After non-stop swell this week, things are going to calm down a bit.

We have some leftovers Today which will fade out Tomorrow. After that some background swell for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will show up thanks to a front that is barely dipping out in the Atlantic off the Eastern USA. All the fronts in the long term for almost the rest of the month are not dipping down and out in the Atlantic like this past front did. Instead, they’re all forecast to point their wind-flow, movement, and any resulting swell away from us with no considerable dip in the jetstream to push them into our swell window. This means we will only get background pulses. Seeing a forecast like this after such a good swell is kind of a bummer. I hope it flip-flops and we get another raging front!