Hurricane Nicole Gives Us More Surf!

Enjoy the nonstop swell people. It’s been a long hot summer. Hurricane Nicole has just been sitting right in our swell window and strengthening. As the swell from the cold-front that ate Matthew fades out, we should have plenty of hurricane swell filling in. Expect conditions to remain overhead through the rest of the week and at least chest high over the weekend. Then next week we could see another round of long period swell when Nicole goes extra-tropical and merges with a cold front. What an amazing setup we have right now. Now go surf!

Hurricane Matthew finally goes out to sea – surf time!

It’s about time. Matthew went from a predicted path of maximum surf and minimal destruction to an actual path of maximum destruction and minimal surf. Now that he’s moving out to sea and absorbed in a cold front we can just think about the surf. Most of next week should go off! The first couple of days should be fairly big, and then fading leftovers in the fun chest high range for the rest of the week. I’m a little bummed we don’t get the Loopty Loop path, but to be honest the Loopty Loop is kind of a super rare occurrence and I never really had too much faith in it. Hope yes, faith no. The current forecast makes more sense and is a bit more reliable as a result. Get ready to surf your brains out! And if you’re flying in for the swell, book a photo shoot with me!

Hurricane Matthew and Hurricane Nicole – More Surf!

Hurricane Matthew is as big and strong as ever. Sorry Florida, you’re gonna get it bad. When the forecast track keeps shifing each model run, chances are that the actual track will follow the change in trend. FL is gonna get pounded. As far as surf is concerned, we should continue to see minor swell from both storms through the weekend. Yup! Nicole is now a hurricane. Hurricane Nicole is doing her little wiggle right on 65W so we should see some smaller surf generated from the north and northeast. Matthew swell will be WNW and fairly weak. Isabela will be the call for this weekend with dead winds or south winds and non-stop Nicole swell. Get your fix up there! The contest should have perfect waves the entire event.

If Matthew does the Loopty Loop we’ll have NW swell.

Check out that forecast path! The loopty loop is not the most common occurrence, but if it does happen we should see some solid swell. Granted, Matthew is forecast to be only a Tropical Storm at that point and the swell would be considerably bigger if he was still a major hurricane, but all of the models are calling for weakening. Look for Loopty Loop swell to fill in from Wednesday of next week through next weekend if it actually happens and Matthew is still organized at that point. We could see some EPIC NW swell.

Hurricane Matthew to make another round of surf after wreaking havoc on the East coast of FL.

Hurricane Matthew is still a large and powerful storm. He’s going to take a very very dangerous path for the Bahamas and the East Coast of FL. The shift to the west in his forecast track negatively affects his NW swell generation for us until later in the forecast period. We should still see some background swell in the waist high range over the next few days from his trek across the Bahamas. Late in the forecast period, do you notice that hook and swoop? That is what some top notch NW hurricane swell in the making looks like. That swoop is what it’s all about. Hope for the swoop! Next week could be EPIC if he maintains strength and does the swoop.

Tropical Storm Nicole forecast to drunkenly meander about the ocean – some surf possible.

Though not a very large or powerful storm, her motion around the 65W barrier means some smaller surf could make its way to PR. Especially since we should have dead winds or south winds through the weekend, the north coast of Puerto Rico should be fun for the rest of the week and all weekend! Head up to Isabela if Rincon isn’t big enough and you should be able to score some decent waves!

Hurricane Matthew, wow what a storm! More Surf?

This hurricane is for real! It’s not particularly common to have a storm maintain this much strength for such a long period of time. This storm is a beast. He’s forecast to remain a major hurricane for most of the week. This is good for surf. This is bad for Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Though he is currently forecast to thread the needle up the channel in between Jamaica and Haiti, there’s no avoiding the extreme weather that comes with such a storm. Surf-wise, his trek heading up north will continue to push WSW swell up the Mona Passage at us and some very special spots on the south side of Puerto Rico should be firing. Once he passes cuba, some W to WNW swell should work its way to PR. Once he’s in Bahamas we should see some WNW to NW swell start to fill in. Once he’s off the coast of the Carolinas, we should see another push of NW swell. So far we’re looking to get a lot of surf from this storm.

Where did this little guy come from? 98L added to the mix for possible surf.

What this little weather system will actually do is extremely uncertain. However, with such calm winds to the north of us, this little guy could throw some ENE swell into the mix. He could also help give a double whammy of surf if he actually gets his act together a bit more and crosses the 65W boundary. There is a lot of heat in the ocean right now and not a lot of shear so anything is possible. So far, October is off to a great start for surfing Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Matthew Goes Cat 4! Surf?!?!

The short answer to that question is yes. We should get some SW swell creeping up through the Mona Passage. This will make most west facing beaches surfable. The size of the surf will really increase once Matthew starts moving North. Our real opportunity for surf is when that thing makes it north of Cuba and the Bahamas. If he stays in tact, we could see some NW swell go on for days. We’ll all have to just wait and see. Also, I really hope everyone in the path of this giant storm is alright through this whole ordeal. Jamaica, I really hope this storm doesn’t sink your beautiful island.

Will Tropical Storm Matthew give Rincon some surf afterall?

So far he seems to be sticking to the script. Though fighting with some heavy shear at the moment, he doesn’t seem to be dying off. In a couple of days he should be in an ideal environment for strengthening. This also means that some surf is possible in the next couple of days and possibly a whole lot more if he keeps his general L-shaped path. The first bit of waves would see is the general ENE wrap-around swell from the passing of the storm. After the storm passes to the west of us a SW kickback swell should start to shoot up the Mona Passage and make all Rincon spots break in reverse. It’s a sight to see. By mid to late next week we could see a steady round of WNW and NW swell for days if the storm does indeed head north. So long story short, we should see some smaller stormy surf in the short term with the possibility of an epic swell event in the long term. I hope it all works out. Also, sorry Jamaica, you might get destroyed.

Plenty of weather – will there be surf?

First look at the North Atlantic tells me we should continue to see small short period surf work its way into Rincon over the next few days. Don’t expect anything major, but the high pressure fetch and the approaching weak Low’s coming of the US should continue to bounce back some background swell towards our island. To be honest, I believe this is more important weather to focus on for immediate surf opportunities. All models are being a bit thrown off though on what we will get from the North by focusing on what they all anticipate will happen from the South. I will talk about that next.

Will 97L become a major hurricane and give us a crazy WSW swell?

All of the models have been trending on that scenario from about a week ago. I don’t think it will happen. Take a look at the wind shear map below:

The wind shear right underneath Puerto Rico is enough to kill any developing storm. 97L has only until the end of the day to take advantage of a low shear environment. Granted, there is plenty of heat down there in it’s path and that might help keep the tropical low alive, but if she can’t get her structure together she won’t really be able to feed on that heat effectively.

If you notice in the wind shear map, everything west of Puerto Rico is all peachy as far as wind shear is concerned. This means that after passing to the south of Puerto Rico, if the storm is still in one piece, we could see some real development. All of the models are then calling for a sharp North Turn. This could be the opportunity for surf to come from this system. We’re talking a long ways out, but I like this scenario if it materializes. I’ll get into more detail as to why in my next forecast update after a few more model runs.

Tropical Storm Karl forecast to walk the line.

Everyone who has been keeping up with my forecasts knows how much I believe in Karl. But I don’t like the trend I’m seeing on a lot of the model runs. The models keep putting Karl on a Northerly path into oblivion too early to really give us a shot at surf. The current forecast has him walking the thin line between flatness and solid surf. 65W is that line. If he can make it to that zone, there should be everything he needs to become a major hurricane. Plenty of hot ocean water, moisture, and low shear waits for him right in our swell window. If he can’t get to it, all hope is lost. TD 13 is a waste of time. All I’m going to say about that storm is that it will dissipate far away from us and go down in history as being the most insignificant tropical weather system of all time. Julia just couldn’t get it together. Karl we need you to come through for us!

Tropical Storm Julia moves East – this could be a game changer!

She is really close to our NW swell window. If she can muster up some strength during her 5 day walkabout off the coast of the Carolinas we could see some decent swell. She’s not very strong, but she’ll be circling around in a prime spot for NW swell generation. I really hope she can get it together. As long as she stays out to see and gets a bit more organized we could see a NW swell in the next 5 days.

Karl! Good to see you!

This track is what I was hoping for. I hope he sticks to a westerly route headed our way and then moves north as he approaches the islands and strengthens. 65W to 70W and 25N to 30N would be the ideal target. I’m doubling down on Karl (referred to in previous posts as 95L before he became a named storm). Any swell under this scenario is over a week out so there’s plenty of time for this to go completely wrong, but I have faith in this one.