Tropical Storm Joaquin forms right in our swell window!

Right now he’s serving to keep the winds dead as a longer period NE swell fills in from a cold-front, but he could become so much more than that. The wind shear is supposed to lighten up tomorrow which would give Joaquin a chance to strengthen and get more organized. If he does that and gets a bigger/symmetrical windfield we could be looking at a nice setup for a week of perfect waves. Right now there is plenty of swell in the water to keep us surfing here in Rincon for another 2-3 days. If Tropical Storm Joaquin does get his act together during that time, his swell will blend right in and keep the surf going off! This is all best case scenario, but I’m so stoked right now I can’t help but give everyone a heads up.

We’re about to get hit with more rain than waves.

As stated before Erika is a larger and more resilient storm than Danny. I don’t recommend thinking Erika will just be another Danny. There will be some weather tomorrow. I think the southern coasts and the east side of the island will see the worst of it tomorrow and then we’ll get the leftovers on Saturday. Tropical Storm Erika has been forecast to move a little higher north but she seems pretty stubborn and is a little lower latitude than most predicted. The front of the storm has absolutely no rain and weak winds. The back side of the storm is where the action is. Once that side of the storm makes its way to island we’ll see a lot of flooding so be careful. Most of the swell in the ocean right now is east swell and that probably won’t change. The storm was also forecast to be moving along quicker than it is currently moving. This means the whole process of Erika passing over us might be dragged out and for our side of the island the worst weather will be seen after she passes.

Long term outlook:

Tropical Storm Erika is probably going to degenerate into an open wave while passing over Dominican and Hispanola, but she might be enough intact to get going again near the Bahamas. Just north of the Bahamas is our sweet spot for NW tropical swell, but the storm needs a solid wind field in all quadrants. The shear is forecast to be low so if she can get high enough and power up fast enough we could see some NW swell into next week.

Tropical Storm Erika hits Puerto Rico tomorrow night! Ready?

Hurricane Danny was a tiny little thing that got sheared to pieces. It didn’t even rain in Rincon – not one single drop. It disintegrated prior to reaching the island though. Tropical Storm Erika is a bigger and more resilient weather system. I think the heavy shear and dry air will definitely kill it as a Tropical Cyclone, but I forecast more actual rain and wind with this storm. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

Surf?

For most of the island, yes. The southeast and north coasts of the island should see more waves from this system than the tiny micro swell that came with Danny. The wind field is larger and has always made some easterly swell and has always had solid easterly movement. The southeast should see some head high waves and north side of the island will see some overhead surf. Bear in mind that the timing will mean everything. You’ll want to be there when the winds are just right and there’s enough swell. The window for that to happen will be close to when the weather will be the worst so be careful! When it all goes to crap the currents and wind will make the ocean a bad place to be. For the southeast, your window will be on the approach of the storm as the winds get pulled offshore up until approach. For the north coast of the island, your window will be just long enough after she passes to still have swell, south winds, and not victory at sea conditions (that’s going to be a very short window if at all). Here in Rincon will might see some wrap-around swell in the knee to waist high range when whatever is left of Erika passes us. After she passes us, if she can regenerate and get her act together over by the Bahamas we could see some fun WNW swell. I see it more as a possibility with this weather system than I did with Danny. I’ll try to have good coverage on this storm because I see more potential with it than I did with Danny (and we all saw what a disappointment he turned out to be).

We finally have a tropical system with some potential!

Don’t everyone look at it at the same time. We don’t want to scare it away. Tropical Storm Danny has formed in the open Atlantic between us and Africa. I was looking at the wind shear maps a few days ago and noticed that a small bubble of light shear was starting to form right about where Danny is right now and where he’ll be in another couple of days. If that sticks he might form into a Hurricane as currently forecast. As far as waves are concerned his track is currently set to take the low road underneath PR. If this happens he will most likely to be sheared apart the closer he gets to the island, but he’ll give a solid push of swell at the southeast. He’ll be a big enough system to make some swell on the north side of the island as well due to the pressure gradient and movement of the system. We have a high chance of surf one way or another from this system for just about every part of the island except Rincon.

What do we have to look forward to in Rincon?

Well the dream scenario is that Danny takes the high road and then parks just north of the Bahamas and goes cat 5 only to retrograde east southeast before going out to sea. There is about a .000000001% chance of that happening. If it did it would be EPIC. Rincon would turn into Indo. But let’s focus on reality. I’m seeing plenty of activity on satellite imagery off the eastern coast of the US. Nothing major, but there should be enough weather to keep a knee to waist high longboard wave pointed at Rincon for a few days to come. The lower tides will be best to welcome the tiny background swell. This week has been great for surf lessons so far and it looks to continue for a few days.

We’re heading into September, if it’s gonna happen – it’s gonna happen now.

Between now and the end of September is when the tropics peak. If we’re gonna see any action, now is the time it will happen. Fix any dings in your boards and get an early prep for the season. We might actually get to surf some real waves before November.

Tropical Storm Claudette forms – no major surf expected.

Tropical Storm Claudette is actually looking decent on satellite imagery, but she just doesn’t have the right trajectory or amount of strength to be a significant surf generator. If she was dipping down or intensifying or both then we could see a better chance at some tropical swell. Unfortunately, she’s doing the opposite of that. She’s moving away from us (as she has since formation) and is going to weaken. We still might see some background swell at some point over the next couple of days, but don’t expect too much.

Keep an eye on different parts of the island.

There are tropical waves passing the lower Atlantic and Caribbean. They have no chance whatsoever of forming down there, but they do have the ability to make fun waves at certain unique spots on the island. The southeast corner of PR has plenty of opportunities. If a wave is strong enough pressure-wise the north side of the island can see some fun surf as well. Now is the time to explore.

When does a higher latitude storm give Rincon waves?

When it’s very strong and has a solid high pressure build in behind it to amplify it’s backside fetch. We need a long fetch pointed at us to get surf no matter what force of nature is causing it. Also, if we do get a larger high latitude storm and it happens to make a wobble south or dip down we almost always get some good swell. Rapid intensification is also good for groundswell. When a storm sits kinda stationary in our swell wind and then rapidly intensifies it sets a bomb off in the ocean. Anything Category 3 and above in our swell window will generally give us good surf. These are the scenarios to watch for. I hope we see it happen this season.