The battle between two weak swells, will there be surf?

Post-Tropical Storm Odette should generate a modest swell over the next couple of days as a post-tropical cyclone. The pressure and wind matches what we see in a weak cold-front swell. A weak cold-front swell normally gives us some chest high surf for a day or two. In addition, some models are calling for a quick dip down which should help form some longer period NE swell. The only problem is that Tropical Storm Peter will be taking a track that competes with swell in the opposing direction. Tropical Storm Peter is also currently forecast to break the 65 west barrier and would otherwise increase the possibilities for surf in Rincon. However, the weak state of the storm and it’s movement away from the island looks like it may just be a nuisance. The interaction between both swells increases the likelihood of showing up to the beach mid-week with unfulfilled hopes and dreams. Real-time buoy data will be more important than model runs on this swell event. I’ll update further as events unfold for a possible swell mid-week into next weekend. We stay on the small side for surf for now.

Hurricane Larry forecast to bring some surf!

Where all other storms so far have failed, Larry should be able to “Git-R-Done”. The current forecast brings Hurricane Larry to major hurricane strength over the weekend. If Larry continues to grow in size and intensity, he should be a proper wave maker. Everyone will get to surf from this storm if it keeps it’s middle of Atlantic forecast track. Giant open ocean storms with no land damage is what everyone wants during hurricane season – not catastrophic damage. By Sunday, the east side of the island will receive it’s first dose of solid long-period ground swell. Monday will most likely see the initial pulse at extremely exposed spots on the North side of the island. Most of the island will be surfable with good conditions. Rincon, however will very much get the smallest waves on the island during this swell event. The track of Larry doesn’t look to pass 65 West – the make or break zone for a storm swell to really hit Rincon. If the wind gets pulled south, we could possibly see the entire North coast of Puerto Rico firing with glassy conditions. No need to fight at crowded peaks. How big will the swell be? I’m anticipating head high with sets a couple feet overhead for most spots. The exception will be Fajardo. Fajardo will be huge at the swells arrival. The current will probably also be a bit intense. Also, never mind what I just said, there’s no waves in Fajardo. Don’t go there. Anyways, Rincon should start to see some swell early next week perhaps around Tuesday. For Rincon I forecast conditions great for wavestorm’s to crash into eachother and flail through the air after nose diving. Some decent, chest high sets should be able to roll in at some exposed Rincon spots perfect for beginners to drop in eachother and frustrate the one dude who can actually surf but wasn’t able to drive north all swell. Surf lessons should continue to populate the line-up with at least 30-50 people at each main break. Stay safe and have fun!

The tropics are active, but the surf stays flat.

Wow, we’re just getting the hard skunk this summer. This week will feature a relentless, hazy heat wave filled with dust and desperate cries for a pattern change. We see so many possibilities in the weather map above, but the steering currents just don’t favor throwing anything into our surf generation zones, aka swell windows. It’s bad enough when this happens during the winter, but to happen during the winter and summer really puts a damper on things. We will get waves again one day, somehow. But I don’t see it happening any time soon. I’ll update as soon as I see anything that might change that.

Tropical Storm Henri Drunkenly Meanders Into Existance – Surf?

Yup, another tropical system develops in the Atlantic today. Henri, is a small but persistent little storm forecast to do a little loop out in the Atlantic near Bermuda. Henri doesn’t really have a long term plan. He just kind of showed up, figured he’d take advantage of the lower shear and high ocean heat while he can before getting swallowed up by shear and drifting who knows where. If by some chance he’s able to grow quickly and actually do the loop around we could see a major swell event develop. As it is now, he just is a random storm living for today. Grace was another micro, baby swell event with a tiny ankle banger at the most exposed spots in Rincon. We could really use some surf.

Tropical Storm Grace jumps south – surf stays small to flat.

Grace bumped a bit south and so did our chances for any decent surf. That high pressure ridge just won’t quit. We have every open tropical wave on a direct collision course with PR or just below. From the looks of it, we’ll have another tropical disturbance in about 5 to 7 days that will most likely play out the same way as Fred and Grace. If that ridge could budge, we could see systems climb a little more north which would be better for surf and less impacts with the islands.

Repeat of Tropical Storm Fred – Tiny, Baby Surf Possible

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. We have a tropical disturbance approaching that’s supposed to build in strength and get our hopes up for surf. Unfortunately, it’s looking like another Fred. Fred gave the north side of the island a waist to chest high wave for about 30 minutes at sunrise before dropping to knee high and leaving the entire island’s hopes and dreams unfulfilled. I hate the current steering currents. Every tropical wave passing straight over us is the least ideal for surf generation. Our only wishful thinking on this new disturbance is that it gains intensity enough to pull north of the island. A more northerly track would lead to a better chance for surf. In addition, the forward speed is supposed to slow in 2 to 3 days. We need that thing to go north. If it goes north of Puerto Rico it could sit in a swell window for sufficient time to give us something to ride.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is looking impressive on Satellite imagery, more weather than surf is likely.

Whenever a storm is taking the route it’s currently taking toward PR we normally don’t see quality waves here in Rincon. Get ready for some wind and rain instead. It’s good time to make sure all your hurricane prep is done because historically speaking things will only get more active between now and October. As for surf, I imagine some of the east side spots and really exposed southeast spots should be seeing at least something by later today. After that just a garbage weather day is likely with small choppy waves and heavy current on most of Wednesday. We’ll have to see how it plays out with the actual path the storm will take for a better idea of the possibilities of waves on Wednesday evening and Thursday.

Hurricane Season 2021 is heating up – surf?

The short answer is yes, most likely. Unfortunately it’s a yes for most of the island outside of Rincon. A storm passing below or right on top of the island is more of a east coast or north coast type of event. If we get some decent south winds and enough of a drop in pressure, the north facing beaches in Rincon just might be rideable. Your summer time spots are going to be working better though. But hey, at least there’s something to report. We’ve been stuck in a super flat pattern for quite some time now. It’s good to have something watch for this week. Let’s see how it develops. I’ll update as soon as I see something more concrete lining up.

Full week of waves in May!

Yes, it’s hard to believe but we have a full week of waves in May. Some days have been better than others and hitting the tide just right can lead to having a more consistent session. The beginner crowds have been insane! All of the main breaks are full of foam boards flying through the air as beginners nose dive repeatedly all over the place. The vibe is pretty horrible at the main breaks. Here’s the thing though, we have calm winds the first half of the day at just about every spot. If you’re not a beginner on a foam board and want to surf in a less hostile environment do some exploring. The vibe is just so terrible and crowded in the water right now. I’ve never seen crowds like this in May. But hey, at least there’s surf in the summer. Surfing a spot with less than perfect waves but no crowd can be more fun that glassy perfection with heavy crowds yelling at it each other and foam boards flying through the air.

Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!

Early model runs on this weekend are showing potential for a decent sized long period swell to show up on Sunday. The most exposed breaks on the north side of the island could see some overhead sets and glassy conditions early in the morning. A lot depends on what actually happens in the Atlantic over the next few days but we should at least continue to see waist to chest high rideable surf here in Rincon. By the evening, even Rincon could see some overhead sets.

Get Ready to Surf – More Swell On the Way!

So here we are in April and we’re finally seeing some classic cold-front swell. For once the storm isn’t heading straight for Iceland and Europe and completely avoiding our swell window. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some bigger sets fill in Sunday evening even though Monday is currently the official forecast arrival. Until then, we have some residual swell in the water over the next couple of days. Expect some waist to chest high surf with extremely crowded conditions: people bailing on their boards, falling on top of each other, yelling at each other, dropping in on each other, surf schools everywhere, blue foam boards flying through the air, and countless board collisions. After that fades out we should see some of the bigger swell fill in. Hopefully the crowds will ease, but I get the feeling we’ll just see them increase. Monday will probably see some 2-4ft overhead surf with some possible double overhead sets if all stays on track. I’ll update again over the weekend. Have fun!